Rob D
One of the running themes I will aim to provide on this website and in my podcasts is a series called 3 UP 3 DOWN. I will discuss 3 players on the rise and 3 players on the decline. The articles will take shape in many different forms. I might be discussing the players for the current week, the upcoming month or the rest of the season. For dynasty and keeper leagues I will discuss my thoughts for the players moving forward to the next year or next couple of years versus their return on investment in the short term . The segment will also be format specific at times where I will focus on either rotisserie, head to head or points league as well as looking at players through the lens of a keeper or redraft league and auction or snake formats.
For this article I will focus on auction keeper leagues. It might sound a little format specific, but i promise that you can take the overall concept and apply it to your standard leagues in ways to help your team improve. For this specific article, I am going to breakdown 3 players I think you should try to trade for (3 up), and 3 players who you should be actively shopping (3 down). Conversely, the 3 up players will represent players that other owners might be down on and the 3 down players will represent player whose values have risen to a point where you might be able to receive a great haul of players or a trade that will vastly improve your team. Recency bias runs prevalent in fantasy sports. We need to capture the recency bias that other owners show for players in a way to benefit your team.
Before we go over the players, i want to breakdown why i will be targeting the players who other owners might be down on in keeper leagues. Some of you might be in auction keeper leagues where there are contracts given out to players. Some leagues may keep players be on a year to year basis, others might play with a more detailed set up that involves contracts for multiple years. In those leagues you may have seen a post from an owner, or received an email from an owner pleading to take a bad contract off of his team (or what THEY perceive to be bad). In some cases an owner might have better talent to freeze for the next year or players that out performed their acquisition cost from the previous year and can be held over this year for a profitable price. It is in these instances where you need to be paying attention, scanning the rosters and set yourself up for a deal that can benefit your team. Often times, depending on the desperation of the other owner, it may come to a point where you can land several impactful players as long as you take on the contracted player the other owner doesnt want. There has been some rare instances where i received an email or text saying “you can anyone else on my tem if you take such and such’s contract”.
You may be thinking 2 things:
- 1 – why would i want to take on a bad contract? Remember…recency bias- owners love to go off of the previous year. Do your due diligence and check out the performance of that player in the years prior to and come up with an evaluation of whether that player can regain his old form. Perhaps he was dealing with an injury. If hes a second year player maybe the league caught up to him and pitchers had a better plan of attack against them. Check to see if that player made adjustments in the later part of the year. Sometimes the stats for a whole season do not tell the whole picture .Hopefully you can gain some insight that the other owner might not be aware of.
- 2- you are probably saying to yourself “you would need a perfect storm” to stumble upon a situation like this but that is not necessarily true. You need to outwork the other owners in your league and advance your approach toward roster scanning. If you are actively checking out the rosters of other owners it is sometimes you that can initiate these types of trades rather than the other owner.
The goal for the 3 up players is to seek out the unwanted contracts from other teams, offer a reasonable comp back -AND acquire talent on TOP of that. The goal of the 3 down players is more simplistic. You may have a player on your team whose value has skyrocketed during the offseason. Check the market and note any high movers that you may have rostered on your team. Post an on the block to gauge some interest. That is the marginal way of approaching it. The better way is to scan the rosters of other teams- IDENTIFY players you want to be on your team and initiate trade talk with that other owner. The concept is similar to that of trading for an unwanted player in that you are trying to extract more value into your team than what your are giving up. Even if the player on the rise is in fact extremely good- you can always try to get more value in return- especially if that said player is in the spotlight at that moment in time.
3 UP:
- ANDREW BENINTENDI – 25 years old. He is signed through the end of 2021. Motivated? Check. Young? Check. Prospect pedigree? Check. (1ST ROUND 7TH OVERALL IN 2015) Health? Check. Over 600 PA 3 years in a row.
His stock has fallen even further during this offseason. From November 2019 to feb 1st 2020 he had an AAV of $15, ranging from $12-19 and an ADP of 108 that ranged from minimum 85 to maximum 137. Fast forward to February 1st on, his AAV dropped to $13, going for as low as $9 to as high as $17, with ADP dropping 5 spots to 113.
Let’s check that recency bias. He returned values of $24 AND $32 respectively in 2017/2018. Which equates to 3rd round value in 2017 and near first round for 2018. He has a 3 yr average of 16 hrs/86 runs/82 rbis/17sbs/.275 avg- only 11 players have put up those numbers in a single season over the past 3 years- Acuna, Yelich, Betts, Story, Lindor, Altuve, Baez…i think you catch my drift. I also love the fact that he will probably lead off, and most likely never fall out of the top 3 spots.
His wOBA is .340 for the last 3 years which is 20 points higher than league average. His Statcast sweet spot %, which is balls hit in the launch angle range of 8-32 degrees, which ultimately leads to better results- has risen the past 3 years, last year being good for 29th best in the league in a down statistical year. He was shifted against on %30 of his at bats last year, more than double his career average, so he might have to adjust to that better. However he had 3 opposite field HRS in his first 2 seasons, last year he had 6. He came into the season with 20lbs of added weight and probably affected him enough to change him as a player.
Bottom line in a keeper league with contracts someone most likely acquired him cheap as a rookie or second year player and contracted him for some years, or maybe this is the last year in a contract. Find a comp player on your team, trade for Benintendi, AND acquire more talent on top of that from the owner who does not believe anymore.
2. RHYS HOSKINS– age 27, drafted in 5th round (2014). Arbitration eligible in 2021- should be motivated. Hoskins’ NFC ADPand AAV have remained similar throughout the whole offseason. However from February 1st on, his max draft position rose 23 spots then from November through February. Clean bill of health with over 700 PA’s last year. He has the 21st most total home runs in the last 2 seasons.
He was hit on the hand on 8/15 and returned to hit for a .182 ba with 5 hr in 40 games. Before the injury, in 527 PA Hoskins had 24 HRS 70 RBIS 62 RUNS .365WOBA. Those numbers were on par to match his 2018 season- the season he returned $21 and 4th round value. His wRC+ was +125. His expected power index as tracked by baseballhq.com is %40 better than the league average. His strikeout rate is slightly increasing year by year, which is a little worrisome, but his walk rate is %6 higher than league average and it reflects in his solid on base percentage for the last 3 years- which is .360, 40 points above the league average.
He led the league in launch angle at 24 degrees, almost 1.5 degrees ahead of Edwin Encarnacion and 1.8 ahead of Mike Trout. He was 6th in the league in average distance per batted ball. Guess what Hoskins was 19th in pull balled rate, no wonder why i like him, but he needs to improve on his opposite field power as he only had 2 homers going the other way in 2019.
Rhys Hoskins puts the ball in the air, and usually far. He is in his age 27 prime year. His projection for the (full) year from BatX by Derek Carty reads .255 36 HRS 97RBIS, 89 RUNS. He is in a solid lineup and in a regular season i would make a bold prediction of 40+homers. There is a good chance an owner may have signed him long term in your league and he is fed up that he has not hit 50 homers in a year yet. Take advantage by trading for him AND acquiring talent on top of that.
3. BYRON BUXTON– age 26- 2nd overall pick in 2012 mlb draft, 1 year left on his contract at 3 million, so he should be motivated for a payday type year. He has youth, prime and prospect pedigree. Injuries?- well thats been the biggest drawback for Buxton in his young MLB career.
NFC ADP- Buxton has actually seen an increase in his ADP of 21 spots, going from 164 to 143. His max auction acquisition has also risen from $11 to $14, while his AAV popped up only a buck. The market for Buxton has increased since he has essentially be given more time to heal during the CoVid shutdown and delay of the MLB season. His injuries from last year include a hit by pitch wrist injury that was not from his own doing. His other 2 injuries were caused by his aggressive play in the field and his tremendous outfield value, running into the outfield wall, and diving to make plays that most outfielders could not get to, resulting in him missing time due to a concussion ,sore back, sore knee and eventually a torn labrum.
Lets break down some numbers from this mega skilled player. His contact rate improved last year, showing more of an ability to put the bat on the ball. The harder you hit a ball, the better chance you have in getting hits. Per Statcast he has shown an increase rate of swinging at pitches in the zone, causing him to chase less as well, leading to an increase in his hard hit rate. If you Hit the ball hard and put it in the air, that results in more chances for HRs and extra base hits. Buxtons rate for hard hit line drives and hard hit fly balls improved from roughly %10 below league average to %50 better than league average.
The BatX by Derek Carty had him projected as one of only 8 players for 20 homers and 20 steals (in a 162 game season) and thats only in 130games. There was 9 players who did 20/20 last year. Some projections have him close to 10/10, even in this shortened season. That would provide immense value. He has a league average strikeout rate and a slightly below average walk rate. The good news is that he has slashed %12 points off his strikeout rate since 2016.
Buxtons ISO was good for 55th last year at .251, an 90 point increase from 2017, his last full season. Buxton shows a pull heavy approach ( i promise I am not doing this on purpose) landing in the top 10 in pulled ball rate. For all the Statcast lovers he increased his launch angle, exit velo and barrels.
I have always been tantalized by Buxtons skills and i’m hoping he can stay healthy to fulfill his promise. I am true to my word in the advice i give as i went out and traded for Buxton in the offseason. The owner who had him was tired of waiting for him to be healthy and erupt, and was hoping to trade him away. In a league where the salary cap is $275 with 12 owners who can keep a max 10 players from year to year, i acquired Buxton for $19 in his last year of his contract. I had Muncy for $7 who the other owner coveted. I took Buxton from him and was ALSO able to snag Woodruff for $3, Boyd for $3 and Ohtani for $15 Sometimes an owner wants to get rid of someone so bad you can capitalize with a trade like this. I depleted my younger keeper options by trading for deGrom last year to make a run for the championship, which i ended up winning. This trade allowed me to obtain some great keeper options by taking on Buxton, who has risk but the reward can be exponential. He can be a league winner, especially in this short season and the future. If he bottoms out, i can still win this trade from the possible value from Woodruff, Boyd and Ohtani. Which is the main concept im trying to show you guys.
3 DOWN
- YU DARVISH – 33 year old pitcher signed through 2023. Lets check out his NFC ADP/AAV. From November to February, he had an AAV of $23 with a min $22 and max of 24. From February on his AAV rose $3 to $26 and his max acquisition cost went up $7 to $31. His ADP has risen from 60 to 52 and he has gone as early as 23rd overall!
This is coming off the heels of his 81 inning stretch after the all star break that saw him with a stat line of 118 k’s vs 7 walks and a 2.76 ERA. That was good for an insane %37 strikeout rate and 13 k/9. His walk rate was an astounding %2. His era before the all star break? It was a 5. He had 50 walks in 97 innings.
He posted $29 of value in the second half last year. With the exception of his 2013 season where he returned $28 (as a 27 yr old), he has not returned over $16 of value in any single season, including last year. People are extremely high on his second half as a reason to be buying him at a high price. Take advantage of this by shopping him if you own him. Look for a pitching starved owner or if you can convince another owner that his second half is indeed what will become his norm. Maybe they will take the bait for this 33 year old pitcher routinely lands on the injured list. Recency bias works both ways, sometimes people get turned off by the previous year bad stats and this instance it works by someone being attracted to his strong second half. You probably acquired him at a great cost in 2019 coming off a short 2018 season and an average 2017 season. SELL!
2. MIKE CLEVINGER– 29 year old 4th round pick in 2011 who is signed through the end of 2020. He should be motivated to get paid, so long as his can shake the injury bug
His control was solid last year but his ball % reads not so fast. The rest of the metrics show full growth nearly across the board. I wont bore you with stat overload here, theres really nothing to pitch skills wise. So why am i advising you to trade him? The injury bug. He had a pretty scary back injury in early 2019 and a sprained right ankle. He then had a scope to fix a torn meniscus in his landing leg. He has a violent leg kick and a hard land on his plant leg which might affect his pitching.
His NFC ADP stands at 30 overall, 9th pitcher off the board, going as high as 13 in drafts and commanding an AAV of $30 with a high of $36. I like his overall tool set and even love his personality on Twitter and some social media videos. But the price is astronomically high for an injury prone age 29 pitcher with only 500 ips under his belt. This is a strong sell for me because i think the return will be bountiful not because of his skill set- which I love.
3. ANTHONY RENDON– age 30, 1st round 6th overall pick in 2011, just signed a huge offseason deal to change teams and coasts as he goes from the WS champ Nationals to join Mike Trout and the Angels. Its funny it feels like he’s been in the league forever and yet he does not have 1000 career hits and he only has 6 more career HRS than Francisco Lindor (who seems like he hasnt been in the league for a long time and hes 26)
Rendon has returned an increase in fantasy value for 4 straight years now . One thing that we do know from playing fantasy is that a trend like that does not always continue. He improved vs righties for the 4th year which is a tremendous feat. Per baseballhq.com , he was in the top 10 of the league in a stat they call a quality consistency score, which measures the players effectiveness and consistency on a week to week basis. Baseballhq is the #1 site for fantasy baseball advice as well as having the best draft and in season resource guide with the Baseball Forecaster . I highly recommend everyone playing fantasy baseball to check out the site. Its a paid site but highly worth it in the money it might help you win back. Back to Rendon, the consistency gives him a big push in head to head leagues where he is not having weeks that hurt your team.
He pushed his value into the mid $30 range to return first round value. I think this was his career year and its the time to profit off of that. Find an owner who is banking on him continuing his upward trend into his early 30’s and get a bounty in return.
Remember if you deem a player as a big time risk/reward candidate its ok to roster them. You just have to know when to take risks on your team. The goal is to limit the amount of risk you are rostering, but don’t shy away from players who flash an ability to be a tremendous difference maker. By following Ron Shandler and his roster construction process called BABS, I have learned a great deal about tracking the amount of assets and liabilities that you are rostering at the draft. We can get into roster construction on another podcast.
I hope I was able to be of some help as we gear up to a possible start of the baseball season and if you have not drafted yet, try to apply some of these concepts and see how it goes. Its not for everyone but when executed properly can pay off handsomely for you.
