in Go The Distance, Spring Training 2023

Going the Distance: Spring Training Notes 3/3/23

  • Thanks to Ryan Venancio for helping me with some notes. 
  • QUOTES
    • Ryan McMahon will likely see some time at 2B ( as mentioned on the last pod). Montero and Nolan Jones enter the picture. They split the game at third yesterday. McMahon played 2B, Alan Trejo subbed in later in the game
    • https://twitter.com/joelsherman1/status/1631735033756090373?s=46&t=H7BBzFfyLVOKznf7Kpsu5g
    • Nolan Jones: (OF)is going off the board at 457 in the last 2 weeks of ADP data in Draft Champions (NFBC DC). 
      • Jones was 13 & 22% better than league average in AAA the past 2 seasons with the Guardians- as a 23 and 24 year old. 
      • In 94 MLB PA he has 8 barrels (14.5%) and Max EV of 111.8. He is playing in Coors field now. 
      • He also had a 33% strikeout rate as well as 28% strikeout rate in AAA the past 2 seasons. 
      • Jones is a lefty, the chances he splits with Montero as a platoon is there.
      •  I think he is like Tyler Naquin.
    • Elehuris Montero: 3B ADP 500 in last 2 weeks of DC’s. 
      • 10 straight starts v RHP from 8/3/22-8/21/22
      • Totals in that span vs both lhp + rhp:
        • 66 PA 4 HR 10 R 13 RBI .272 AVG .358 wOBA 117 wRC+
        • 30.3-1.5 K-BB%, 15.4 swinging strike %, 71% CT
      • VS RHP in that span:
        • 42 PA 2 HR, 643 OPS, 31% K
      • He started in 6 of the last 20 games started by a RHP 
      • Final season stats vs RHP:
        • 109 PA, 632 OPS, 34%K
  • Weird random observation: Max Scherzer had an easy double play negated from a pitch clock violation- what I want to know is- DOES THE STATCAST DATA REGISTER IF THIS HAPPENS IN SEASON! Priorities, ya know. 
  • INJURY NEWS:
    • Andrew Painter: Painter is undergoing tests on his right elbow after alerting trainers to some soreness in the area Friday, Paul Casella of MLB.com reports.
      • Oh boy. Get Bailey Falter back on your radar. Not that he should have been off of it.
        • Falter 2H 56 IP 6 wins 3.73 SIERRA 22/4 K/Bb%
    • Juan Soto: calf tightness- Soto missed a brief stretch earlier in the week with calf tightness, and after returning to the Padres lineup Wednesday, it now seems that he is not quite 100 percent healthy yet.
      • Almost knocks him into the back end of the second for me!
    • Gordon was diagnosed Friday with a mild-to-moderate left high ankle sprain, Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com reports.
      • Gordon suffered the injury on a play in the infield during Friday afternoon’s Grapefruit League game against the Red Sox.
      •  X-rays turned up negative for any fractures, but he was in a walking boot and using crutches as he left the Twins’ clubhouse in Florida. 
      • The 27-year-old will be held out at least through the weekend, per manager Rocco Baldelli
      • He did walk off on own power AND did 2 dry squats before he left field! But he went down the dugout steps one foot at a time like a man with some bad joint problems- sounds familiar! 
      • ACTION: Last 2 weeks his ADP for DC’s is 287. I picked him last night in my express DC at 368 AMA! To my 10 HR/ 10 SB from a multi-eligibile (2b/of) player sounds good in that range. You can speculate on Kyle Farmer ( ADP 493 in last 2 weeks 3B/SS ) or Donovan Solano (ADP 695 1B) to get some additional reps. Farmer is a decent option given his price point and multi-eligibility.He hit a HR yesterday! Solano is 35, has 27 career home runs, no speed…almost like me! Playing for the Reds at home last year gave him some streaming value. I would pay for the dip on Gordon
      • Remember Jorge Polanco is nursing an injury as well as Jose Miranda not being able to throw so will be 1B/DH to start. You also have Alex Kirilloff and his always hurting wrist. Where is Miguel Sano?!
    • Vlad Guerrero Jr: left game with knee discomfort. 
    • Red Sox SP’s
      • James Paxton has Grade 1 Hamstring strain. Poor guy. Such a talented pitcher. If you rostered him, you knew the most probable outcome.
      • https://twitter.com/JamieGatlin17/status/1632034112901881856?s=20
      • Bello and Whitlock may not be ready for opening day,
      • Hello Kutter Crawford
        • ADP 684 in the last 2 weeks.
        • 2022: 77 ⅓ IP 77 K 5.47 ERA 1.42 WHIP
        • 4.11 SIERRA, 23.1/8.7 K/BB% 83% Z-CT
          • SP with similar K/BB %: Framber Valdez, JT Brubaker, Reid Detmers, Trevor Rogers
        • According to Pitcher List his cutter (seriously) and his curveball have pitch ERA estimations at 3.22/3.56 respectively. His pitch value is 5.3 on the cutter and 5.18 on the curve. Both really good values. 
        • 6/12/22-8/2/22: 8G 7GS (one 5 inning relief appearance)
          • 43 IP 42 K 2.72 ERA 3.07 FIP/3.54 xFIP
          • Went 6 innings in 3 of those starts
          • 35% O-Swing 24.9/5.3% K/BB %
          • The issue is he is a fly-ball pitcher. HR/9 on the year was 1.4. When he had that good stretch his HR/9 was 0.84
    • Jon Gray is dealing with back tightness and was scratched from his scheduled start Friday versus the Giants. There was no StatCast data from his start on 2/26 but rumored to be down in velocity. Spent some time on the IL in 2022 with a sprained knee and a strained left oblique muscle. Dunning, Otto up next? Taylor Hearn I think remains as a long reliever. 
    • Nick Senzel hit in a simulated game. The hopes is mid-March Cactus league games. I say go get Wil Benson.
    • Update on Connor Wong- Grade 1 hammie strain. Get him late in DC’s

Box Score watching:

  1. Tristan Casas (ADP 238 in last 2 weeks) hits his 2nd home run off a left-handed pitcher in Spring:
    1. 1 HR vs LHP in last 2 seasons at AAA
  2. Brandon Walter 2IP 1 H, 3K’s (ADP 742)
    1. Sinker/Change/Sweeper. Sweeper got 1 whiff on 1 swing, with 2 called strikes for a 75% CSW. Worked the zone well. 24 pitches 18 strikes
    3. 2.88 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 68 strikeouts and just three walks in nine starts (50 innings) at Double-A Portland.
    4. Prospects Live has Walters rated as an 80 grade Chase (on a 20-80 scale), 68 control, 70 CSW and 60 GB. 
  3. Jorge Lopez velo down 2 mph across all of his pitches (13 pitches)
  4. Riley Greene: 2-3 HR 
    1.  11, 30, -3 launch angle. Important to see Greene lift the ball. If you look at his hardest hit balls from last year a lot of them were line-drives and fly balls. He just hit a lot of grounders in general.
  5. Javier Baez batted balls of 106 and 107
  6. Matt Vierling- 3-3 HR/SB-  ADP 496
    1. HR came off a RHP-  .580 OPS vs RHP last year with 4 HR
    2. This HR came off of 32 year old Louis Head
  7. From Ryan Venancio
    1. Eduardo Rodriguez maxed out at 94.1 in 37 pitches. His max last year was 97, he did it 27 times. Something to really monitor. If his velo goes down even more this year, he won’t be rosterable. 
  8. Avisail Garcia 113, 110, 104 mph batted balls. The evs aren’t the issue, the swing and miss is the issue. 
  9. Masyn Winn 106.8 EV, 435 foot homerun. ADP 734 – drafted 5 times in last 21 DC
    1. James Andersons 70th ranked prospect with an ETA of late 2023
    2. 12 HR / 43 SB in MILB- 11/28 in AA
    3. Max Ev of 110 in MILB last season
  10. From Ryan Venancio:
    1. Josh Lowe (ADP 432) getting at bats in the leadoff spot. The Rays want to get a lot of looks at him to see if the changes that he made to his swing and approach paid off. Looking good so far. 
    2. This spring he has 11 PA, 3 hits, HR, SB with 1BB/2K’s
    3. Has batted leadoff in his 3 spring appearances. Twice with what looked like most of the regulars. 
    5. 9 swings, 1 whiff, 100% zone contact
  11. Drew Rasmussen hit 98.1 and sat 96.6. Last year he hit 98.1 once. He threw 24 pitches faster than what he sat yesterday. 
    1. Gained an inch of “rise”
  12. Blue Jays race for last batter spot. Sleeper Addison Barger (ADP 689). Has already hit a ball 108 MPH in spring. From Keegan Mathesons recent article on MLB.com : https://www.mlb.com/news/blue-jays-final-roster-spot-candidates?game_pk=719293
  13. From Ryan Venancio Yosver Zulueta an arm to watch out for as camp goes on. The velo is plus, the stuff is really good. Watch to see if the Blue Jays stretch him out as a starter or use him out of the pen. 22 pitches today with a 33% CSW and 96.4 avg velo 67% Z-CT 9 swings 3 whiffs.
  14. Max Scherzer threw 49 pitches (great) but his velo was down across the board (not great) and only had a 17% whiff against a poor lineup. It’s early but we really have to monitor the older pitchers in regards to the pitch clock. Are they able to adjust and sustain their normal velo while being rushed?
  15. From Ryan Venancio:
    1. Alex Call (ADP 725) got 4 at bats, hit second while playing in left field (two hard hit balls). If Lane Thomas were to get dealt at the deadline or just struggle to hit right handed batters Call could be a candidate to get full time ABs in the 2nd half of the season. ZiPs projects him to be a league average bat. 1 SB this spring
  16. CJ Abrams led off on this game with no Lane Thomas
  17. Jared Kelenic (304) with his 3 straight start betting 2nd vs RHP
    1. 3 swings, no whiffs, no chases out of the zone
    2. 3 HR, 4 K’s this spring
    3. Oppo HR vs LHP on 3/1: https://www.mlb.com/video/kelenic-lifts-third-hr-of-spring?partnerId=web_video-playback-page_video-share
  18. Mason McCoy had 2 hard hits at 104.4 and 105.9 for a double and single respectively.
    1. He went 21 Hr/ 22 SB in AAA last season  
  19. Lourdes Gurriel had 3 hard hits. Coming off hand injury last season which sapped his power (and he stated he tried to hit more like Yuli last season).
    1. The 3 hard hits came at launch angles of -9, 4 and 1 degree.
  20. Melancon (ADP 496): 1 IP, 6H 3ER 2K
    1. down 2 mph. Another old guy 
    2. There was a point where he was in the late 500’s and it might have been worth a shot?? Stay away
  21. From Ryan Venancio: 
    1. Marco Gonzales might have a new pitch? His “curveball” was thrown 2 mph harder on average (small sample). What was his 4th most thrown pitch ended up being his 2nd most thrown pitch yesterday. It had 7 inches less of vert break and 3 inches less horizontal break, on average. While it would be nice to see him throw a new and improved curveball, if hes sitting 88 and striking out 13% of batters. He won’t be a starter for very long. 
  22. From Ryan Venancio:
    1. Carlos Vargas, averaged 99 on the sinker in 12 pitches (33% whiff). Vargas was a starter before he got Tommy John surgery, forcing him to miss 20 and 21. D’Backs dealt for him due to the Guardians having a 40-man roster crunch. Down the stretch in AAA, he struck out 39% of batters in 10 innings of work. This could be the Arizona closer in the 2nd half of the season. 
  23. Clarke Schmidt struggled with 1 ⅔ IP 3 hits, 4 ER. 
    1. His new cutter got 2 whiffs on 6 swings and had a 67% z-ct
  24. Michael King looked good in 2 IP, 4K’s. Velo down but was effective
  25. Bryce Elder threw 3IP, 3K’s- i think he edges out the competition for SP5
  26. Samad Taylor (watch) 2-2 
    1.  was taking off for 2nd when Witt drilled a single to right
    2. 9 HR/ 23 SB in AAA last season
  27. Brad Keller 3 IP 1 BB /  3 K / 1ER
  28. Connor Capel 1-3 SB ADP 610 
    1. Has batted 6th/6th/2nd/2nd this spring
    2. 10 Hr/ 21 SB in 400 AAA PA in 2022
  29. Anthony Desclafani (ADP 482) made his return from ankle surgery from last July. 2 IP 3K’s
    1. “That looked like him at his best in 2021,” manager Gabe Kapler said. “He looked like him at his best prior to the injury, so I feel good about his performance today. I feel good about the strike throwing, the ability to get in the zone with all of his pitches. He’s throwing hard and moving well.”
  30. Coco Montes hit his 2nd HR of the spring pinch hitting
  31. Catcher Blake Sabol (ADP 692 in last 2 weeks) batted third while catching. The Rule 5 draftee has 2 HR and 5 hits in 10 PA in the spring. He has C/Of versatility. 
    1. Benefit of drafting in December is you can take him in round 50 post Rule 5 draft.
  32. Robbie Grossman (541 ADP)- playing well early in ST. 
    1. 2 seasons removed from 23 HR/ 20 SB
    2. Avg last 2 seasons of 15/13
  33. Luke Weaver ADP 706- 1 ⅔ IP 6 h / 5 er- why??
  34. Kendal Graveman ⅔ IP 2H / 3ER / 1BB / 0 K
  35. Notes on Kopech:
    1. https://www.mlb.com/news/michael-kopech-increases-changeup-use?game_pk=719291
  36. Luis Urias (ADP 250/263 in OC- 12 team) has batted 1st/3rd/3rd/2nd this spring.
    1. He batted 2nd 18 times last year, and never batted 3rd
  37. Carlos Estevez: ⅓ IP 4BB 2 ER 
    1. Yikes! Walked 3 batters on 12 pitches
    2.  Jimmy Herget ADP 339 in last 2 weeks seems like a logical choice to gain some steam here in drafts. 2H of 2022 he had 8 saves with a 23.8/7.4 k/Bb%
    3. Jose Quijada ( ADP 746, only drafted 2 times in last 21 DC’s- one was me last night!) : 2H of 2022 led the Angles in game leverage index
    4. Quijada 3 saves with a 30.8/12.4 K/Bb%
    5. Herget had a decent amount of 2IP and more than 1 inning appearances, mostly earlier in the season. Pitcher List loves his curveball and slider. Great PLV and PLA

Written by Rob D

Going the Distance: Spring Training Notes 3/2/23

Go The Distance: Spring Training Notes from 3/6-3/7