Bryan Fitzgerald
We’re not at Memorial Day yet, and starting pitching on waiver wires has been picked clean. Much like on the hitting side, there are no big call-ups to throw cash at this week as of Friday, so focus any substantial spending on any highly rostered pitchers who may have been dropped in your league last week.
Sits and Drops
Below are pitchers who are at least 50% owned in either the NFBC Main Event or Online Championship that I think need to be considered as sits or outright cuts for this coming week. Players already on the IL or sent to AAA as of Friday are not included.
Players are listed alphabetically by team and ranked on the following scale for each scoring period: Great Start, Solid Start, Possible Start, Possible Bench, Likely Bench, Definite Bench, and Drop. Write-ups and rationale on each follow below. Be sure to check the probable pitchers this weekend to ensure the match-ups still hold.
| Name | Team | ME% | OC% | Wk 9 | Wk 10 |
| Andrew Abbott | CIN | 100 | 98 | Likely Bench | Solid Start |
| Frankie Montas | CIN | 98 | 70 | Definite Bench | Solid Start |
| Graham Ashcraft | CIN | 88 | 54 | Definite Bench | Solid Start |
| Matt Manning | DET | 100 | 60 | Definite Bench | Definite Bench |
| Alex Lange | DET | 77 | 57 | Drop | |
| Reid Detmers | LAA | 100 | 96 | Likely Bench | Possible Start |
| Griffin Canning | LAA | 93 | 12 | Definite Bench | Possible Start |
| Tyler Anderson | LAA | 84 | 46 | Likely Bench | Likely Bench |
| Walker Buehler | LAD | 100 | 100 | Likely Bench | Solid Start |
| Braxton Garrett | MIA | 100 | 99 | Possible Bench | Possible Bench |
| Colin Rea | MLW | 86 | 18 | Definite Bench | Likely Bench |
| Marcus Stroman | NYY | 100 | 93 | Possible Bench | Solid Start |
| JP Sears | OAK | 98 | 38 | Definite Bench | Definite Bench |
| Martin Perez | PIT | 70 | 22 | Likely Bench | Likely Bench |
| Michael King | SD | 100 | 100 | Likely Bench | Solid Start |
| Kyle Gibson | STL | 97 | 25 | Likely Bench | Likely Bench |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 95 | 77 | Likely Bench | Likely Bench |
Andrew Abbott, Frankie Montas, Graham Ashcraft – Ashcraft has a single start at home vs LAD. Montas gets one start at home vs SDP, and Abbott a SDP/LAD home two-step.
Matt Manning – Scooped up where he was available last week for his Week 8 two-start, Manning looks like he’ll be out of the rotation once Kenta Maeda comes off the IL, which should come next week. Manning’s skills are decent enough to stash in a SP-starved environment (4.22 SIERA, 11% SwStr), but it’s not necessary. His excellent 32% ball rate doesn’t line up with a 9% BB rate and better days could be ahead once he’s called on again.
Alex Lange – Even with Shelby Miller on the IL, it’s not worth speculating on saves with a pitcher who has a 16% BB rate and 4.42 SIERA over the past two seasons.
Reid Detmers, Griffin Canning, Tyler Anderson – Despite a two-start (HOU/CLE), I’m reaching deep into my staff and available streamers to avoid having to use Detmers this week. He’s been a disaster (26 ER in his last 27 IP) and while his peripherals in that span suggest he’s better than that (4.30 SIERA) he just looks off and I want to avoid using him for now.
Canning has pitched better over his last three starts (4.36 SIERA, 19-9% K-BB) but is a no-go at HOU (110 wRC+ vs RHP).
Anderson is all smoke and mirrors (2.92 ERA vs 4.78 SIERA, .223 BABIP, 82% LOB) and is a tough play with his upcoming schedule: at HOU Week 9, vs NYY Week 10, vs SD and HOU Week 11.
Walker Buehler – He’s at CIN this week and is tough to trust in Great American Ballpark with a meh overall line in his first few starts (4.33 SIERA, 17-6% K-BB, 8% SwStr).
Braxton Garrett – It may be hard to find better options, but it’s tough to feel great about Garrett this week vs Zac Gallen at ARI (136 wRC+ vs LHP, 2nd best in MLB).
Colin Rea – No way I’d run Rea and his 4.56 SIERA out in Fenway in Week 9. He’s a questionable start Week 10 vs CHC as well.
Marcus Stroman – He’s a shaky start in Week 9 opposite Dylan Cease at SD (120 wRC+ vs RHP, 4th best in MLB). Stroman’s 3.33 ERA is backed up by a subpar 4.44 SIERA, 1.42 WHIP, and a blah 19-11% K-BB. His 82% LOB rate is going to regress at some point as well.
J.P. Sears – No bueno for Sears the next two weeks – Week 9 vs HOU (127 wRC+ vs LHP), Week 10 at ATL (120 wRC+ vs LHP).
Martin Perez – He’s given up 16 ER over his last 15.1 IP, has a 7% SwStr (4th worst among qualified SPs), and has an uncomfortable two-step vs ATL and SFG in Week 9.
Michael King – The most frustrating fantasy pitcher to own this season is hard to trust for an at CIN and vs NYY two-step in Week 9.
Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn – Lynn and Gibson are hard to start over the next two weeks. Each draws BAL at home in Week 9 and goes to Great American Ballpark in Week 10. Lynn’s Week 10 currently has an at PHI two-step added in. Both are throwing balls at least 40% of the time, have SIERAs north of 4.30, and could be considered for drops if you’re in a roster crunch.
FAAB Targets
Here are pitchers I’d be targeting this weekend who are less than 75% owned in the NFBC Main Event, along with how I’d rate their potential usage for the upcoming scoring periods in Weeks 9 and 10. Players are listed in order of preference with write-ups below. This is not a pretty list. As I said at the top, the wires have been picked clean and here’s what’s left.
| Name | Team | ME % | OC % | Wk 9 | Wk 10 |
| Tylor Megill | NYM | 68 | 6 | Solid Start | Possible Start |
| Spencer Arrighetti | HOU | 56 | 4 | Solid Start | Likely Bench |
| Alek Manoah | TOR | 65 | 21 | Possible Start | Possible Start |
| Joe Ross | MLW | 16 | 1 | Possible Start | Solid Start |
| Chris Flexen | CWS | 5 | 1 | Likely Bench | Possible Start |
| Matt Waldron | SDP | 16 | 2 | Definite Bench | Solid Start |
| Trevor Rogers | MIA | 19 | 17 | Definite Bench | Likely Bench |
| Ryan Feltner | COL | 14 | 2 | Possible Start | Definite Bench |
Tylor Megill – As one of the only healthy, mildly talented arms with a job in a rotation that’s available this weekend, he’s going to be scooped up everywhere for a healthy bid, especially with a solid two-start on tap for Week 9 (vs CLE, 96 wRC+ vs RHP; at SF, 97 wRC+ vs RHP). He’s been Spencer Strider on his rehab assignment (46-2% K-BB, 1 ER on a solo HR in 14 IP), but keep in mind this is the same guy who was torched in his first start this year and had a 5.02 SIERA last season. He’s worth a decent bid, but I wouldn’t come close to breaking the bank.
Spencer Arrighetti – It looks like he’s set to draw a start at OAK next week and has been one of HOU’s better pitchers since his Week 1 implosion (4.03 SIERA, 25-11% K-BB from Week 2 on). Even if Jose Urquidy comes back soon and Arrighetti is booted from the rotation, I think he’s a fine speculative hold as the 6th SP on a team that has several question marks in their rotation.
Alek Manoah – How he pitches vs TB on Sunday will have a big impact on how much the market is going to pay for him. No matter how his start goes, I’m only bidding on Manoah for the solid matchups he has coming up – Week 9 vs DET (93 wRC+ vs RHP), Week 10 vs CHW (MLB-worst 78 wRC+ vs RHP), and a Week 11 two-step (BAL/OAK). It’s nice to see his velo up a full mph from last year, and he shoved against a tough MIN offense last week, but I have zero faith he won’t revert back into uselessness at any point.
Joe Ross – Over his last three starts, Ross has been using his changeup more, leading to a boost in SwStr (17%) and solid peripherals (4.04 SIERA, 19-4% K-BB). It’s a heaven-and-hell two-start in Week 9 – vs MIA, at BOS. He’s lined up for a nice Week 10 vs CWS and is a widely available flier in a thin SP environment.
Chris Flexen – Over his past four starts, he’s backed off his fastball and thrown his slider and cutter more, leading to a respectable 3.96 SIERA, 23-9% K-BB, and 10% SwStr. His next set of starts are rough (Week 9 vs BAL, Week 10 vs TOR, Week 11 at CHC), but we’re already at that point in the season where you need to churn and speculate on any SP with potential skill shifts and signs of life.
Matt Waldron – He looked great Friday night vs ATL (10 K, 2 BB, 1 ER) and although he’s a sit at CIN in Week 9, he’s lined up for a solid two-start in Week 10 (vs MIA, at KC).
Trevor Rogers – There’s no chance I’d start Rogers this week vs MLW, but with pitching so bone-dry, I don’t think it’s the worst speculative add to see if his gains from this week’s start at DET hold (5 IP, 6 K, 2 BB, 0 ER) and/or he gets traded soon to a contending franchise that will get more out of him.
Ryan Feltner – He burned us in his Week 6 two-start stream, but I’m willing to take another shot at OAK in Week 9. It’s still a solid profile – 3.85 SIERA, 21-6% K-BB. I know OAK’s been hitting RHP well (99 wRC+) but they still have a 26% K rate as a team (4th highest in MLB) and I wouldn’t count on them continuing to slug like they have been.
Relievers/Closer Specs
| Name | Team | ME % | OC % | Type | |
| A.J. Puk | MIA | 53 | 11 | Spec | |
| Reed Garrett | NYM | 74 | 29 | Ratio Help/Vulture | |
| Yimi Garcia | TOR | 12 | 3 | Ratio Help/Spec | |
A.J. Puk – His save this week was in extra innings, and Tanner Scott did earn a save this week as well, but it’s time to stash Puk. Scott could be traded soon (so could Puk, to be clear) and Puk is back where he belongs, working in high leverage out of the bullpen.
Reed Garrett – The Mets aren’t pulling a healthy, $100 million Edwin Diaz from closing duties, but as long as Diaz remains allergic to earning saves, Garrett could vulture more wins and saves. Garrett already has five wins and a save on the season while posting elite ratios (2.08 SIERA, 1.05 WHIP) and a 41% K rate.
Yimi Garcia – Garcia’s ownership could spike a bit this weekend after a Romano meltdown on Wednesday. Garcia has been lights out (1.96 SIERA, 38-6% K-BB) while Romano’s coughed up 6 ER in 10 IP with an 11% SwStr, down 6% from 2023. Romano could be shaking off rust after missing time to start the season, or he could just not be healthy coming off elbow issues this spring. Garcia makes for a decent closer spec if needed.
