Bryan Fitzgerald
Below are my recommendations for potential sits and drops when planning for FAAB and your Week 12 lineups. I didn’t get a chance to put together a list of FAAB recommendations, but will be back on that next week. I included both hitters and pitchers I think owners need to consider sitting for Week 12 or cutting in FAAB. Players are listed alphabetically by team with write-ups below. Players at least 50% owned in the NFBC’s Main Event or Online Championship are included. Players already on the IL or optioned to the minors are not included. Players ranked on the following scale for each scoring period: Great Start, Solid Start, Possible Start, Possible Bench, Likely Bench, Definite Bench, and Drop.
Hitters to Sit or Drop
| Name | Team | Pos | ME% | OC% | Wk 12 M-Th | Wk 13 F-Su |
| Eugenio Suarez | ARZ | 3B | 93 | 72 | Possible Bench | Possible Bench |
| Cedric Mullins | BAL | OF | 100 | 95 | Definite Bench | Definite Bench |
| Michael Busch | CHC | 1B,3B | 88 | 74 | Drop | |
| Bo Naylor | CLE | C | 90 | 54 | Drop | |
| Kyle Manzardo | CLE | 1B | 95 | 46 | Definite Bench | Possible Bench |
| Michael Busch | CHC | 1B,3B | 88 | 74 | Drop | |
| Charlie Blackmon | COL | OF | 86 | 7 | Definite Bench | Possible Start |
| Colt Keith | DET | 2B,3B | 98 | 94 | Definite Bench | Solid Start |
| Wenceel Perez | DET | OF | 97 | 61 | Solid Start | Likely Bench |
| Chas McCormick | HOU | OF | 63 | 53 | Definite Bench | Definite Bench |
| Kevin Pillar | LAA | OF | 98 | 43 | Possible Bench | Possible Bench |
| Jesus Sanchez | MIA | OF | 91 | 5 | Possible Bench | Definite Bench |
| Jackson Chourio | MLW | OF | 100 | 98 | Definite Bench | Definite Bench |
| Sal Frelick | MLW | OF | 95 | 75 | Likely Bench | Likely Bench |
| Jake Bauers | MLW | 1B,OF | 54 | 8 | Drop | |
| Austin Wells | NYY | C | 61 | 10 | Drop | |
| Jackson Merrill | SD | OF,SS | 100 | 98 | Likely Bench | Likely Bench |
| Michael Conforto | SF | OF | 98 | 60 | Possible Bench | Possible Bench |
| Leody Taveras | TEX | OF | 98 | 77 | Possible Bench | Possible Bench |
| Justin Turner | TOR | 1B | 84 | 65 | Drop | |
| Luis Garcia | WAS | 2B | 100 | 97 | Solid Start | Definite Bench |
| Eddie Rosario | WAS | OF | 84 | 32 | Possible Start | Definite Bench |
Eugenio Suarez – If you’re still treating him as a set-and-forget CI, he’s hurting you more than he’s helping. Since May 1: .160/.220/.292, 3 HR, 8 R, 10 RBI, 44 wRC+. With Geraldo Perdomo coming back soon and Jordan Lawlar back in the minors, I wouldn’t be shocked if ARI slowly fades Suarez’s playing time away if he doesn’t pick it up soon as better infielders come back to the team. His rostership rates may slowly decline each week, and I would at least consider better streaming options and benching Suarez for the time being if not cutting him.
Cedric Mullins – Come Monday morning, I wouldn’t be surprised if Mullins’ rostership rates have dropped below 80% in both the ME and OC. He’s started just 3/7 vs RHP this month. He has 6 HR and 12 SB on the season, but no HR and 6 SB since May 1 while hitting .123 with a -8 wRC+ in that span. The Orioles are breaking up with you for their hotter, younger hitters, Cedric.
Michael Busch – He’s started just 5/8 games since Pete Crow-Armstrong was called up, as the Cubs are playing Bellinger at 1B with PCA in center most days vs RHP. Stop clinging to the 5 HR Busch hit in consecutive games in April and cut him.
Kyle Manzardo Bo Naylor – It’s sad to say, but Naylor just needs to be dumped. We’re past the point of only dropping him for better RoS options. The catcher free agent pool is hot garbage, but week-to-week streaming from that trash heap is better than what Naylor is going to give you. His wRC+ by month: March/April, 75; May, 27; June, -100. I understand if owners want to hold onto Manzardo for the talent, but he’s shown nothing so far (74 wRC+, 0 HR), sits against every LHP, and only gets one RHP M-Th in Week 12.
Charlie Blackmon – He sits vs LHP, and COL gets three RHP M-Th, but it’s at MIN. Charlie away from Coors this year: .200/.279/.260, 54 wRC+. He’s home F-Su against three RHP, but two of them are Jared Jones and Paul Skenes.
Colt Keith, Wenceel Perez – Keith’s only started vs one LHP this season and DET faces 2/3 vs LHP M-Th. Perez is still playing just about every day, is hitting LHP well (146 wRC+), and DET does get some LHP M-Th. However, Perez has been fading after a hot start. Since May 15: .194/.247/.328, 0 HR, 1 SB. I think he’ll slowly slide into a short-side platoon role. That he was DET’s primary center fielder was propping his playing time up, but Riley Greene has been playing more center lately. With Justyn-Henry Malloy and Akil Baddoo up, Perez could start to lose more playing time against RHP. Parker Meadows is playing well in AAA (136 wRC+, 6 HR, 11 SB) and could come back up soon. I think Perez will be dropped in most 15-team leagues in a few weeks. It might be prudent to get ahead of that if there are better bats on your wire.
Chas McCormick – I understand holding onto the talent (BATX per 600 PA: 18 HR, 17 SB, .241 BA) but the playing time just isn’t there, with just 5/12 starts since May 26.
Kevin Pillar – He’s in a weird, quasi short-side platoon role, only starting against 9/13 RHP since May 21. LAA gets 4/6 vs RHP in Week 12. I’d bet on him getting maybe four starts, but it could be less. A .342 BABIP is also propping up his production, and although his 7% barrel rate and 33% hard hit rate is fine, it’s nothing special.
Jesus Sanchez – He never sees LHP and MIA gets 4/6 vs lefties in Week 12, including a must-sit 3/3 vs LHP F-Su.
Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick, Jake Bauers – Since Rhys Hoskins came off the IL, Chourio has started just 3/7 games. He can’t be trusted for any volume. Frelick is a strict strong-side platoon bat who’s only worth rolling out there when he gets three RHP in any scoring period. MIL gets 2/3 vs RHP both M-Th and F-Su, making him a risky play next week. Bauers is the latest Brewer to get his playing time jerked around. From May 24 to June 3, he started 10/11 games, but has been benched for 2/3 since Tuesday, including one vs a RHP. With Hoskins back, Bauers is probably back to a strong-side platoon bat who sits against some RHP. I don’t trust him for more than three starts next week, making him a cut.
Austin Wells – The Yanks have a solid 7-game week on tap (at KC, at BOS), but Wells has been terrible. Since May 1: 25-3% K-BB, 0 HR, 0.89 ISO, 48 wRC+.
Jackson Merrill – He doesn’t sit against every LHP, but he doesn’t hit them well either (22 wRC+). SD faces 4/6 vs LHP in Week 12, making him a tough bet for production.
Michael Conforto – Just note that Conforto has sat about half of SF’s games vs LHP and they have 3/6 vs lefties in Week 12. Conforto should get four, maybe even five games in, but I also wouldn’t consider him a must-play over a better volume streamer.
Leody Tavares – I wouldn’t blame anyone for wanting to give him a rest until he picks it up again. Last 15 games: .208/.276/.302, 1 HR, 1 SB, 66 wRC+. It’s not the best Week 12 matchup for opposing pitching either (at LAD, at SEA).
Luis Garcia, Eddie Rosario – Both sit vs LHP and WAS gets 2/3 vs lefties F-Su, making them must-sits for next weekend. Rosario has also been cold lately. Since May 20: 45 wRC+, .182 BA, 1 HR, 2 SB. He’s not a must-start or must-roster any week.
Pitchers to Sit or Drop
| Name | Team | ME% | OC% | Wk 12 | Wk 13 |
| Spencer Schwellenbach | ATL | 100 | 34 | Likely Bench | Definite Bench |
| Albert Suarez | BAL | 98 | 33 | Possible Start | Out of Rotation? |
| Kutter Crawford | BOS | 100 | 100 | Possible Start | Possible Start |
| Brayan Bello | BOS | 100 | 99 | Definite Bench | Likely Bench |
| Frankie Montas | CIN | 84 | 45 | Likely Bench | Possible Start |
| Casey Mize | DET | 63 | 30 | Drop | |
| Seth Lugo | KC | 100 | 100 | Possible Bench | Great Start |
| Brady Singer | KC | 100 | 98 | Definite Bench | Possible Start |
| Alec Marsh | KC | 100 | 68 | Definite Bench | Possible Start |
| Colin Rea | MLW | 65 | 5 | Possible Start | Likely Bench |
| Jordan Hicks | SFG | 100 | 99 | Possible Bench | Great Start |
| Kyle Harrison | SF | 98 | 90 | Possible Bench | Solid Start |
| Dane Dunning | TEX | 98 | 67 | Definite Bench | Great Start |
| Michael Lorenzen | TEX | 98 | 50 | Definite Bench | Possible Start |
Spencer Schwellenbach – I can get with holding onto him for his talent for another week, but I value my ratios too much to trust him on a meh Week 12 two-start (at BAL, 109 wRC+ vs RHP; vs TB, 95 wRC+ vs RHP). If he’s still in the rotation in Week 13, you can’t run him out against NYY.
Albert Suarez – I know ATL isn’t hitting like ATL, but a two-start vs the Braves (101 wRC+ vs RHP) then vs PHI (107 wRC+ vs RHP) is nothing to be overly confident about. He also could be booted from the rotation in Week 13 if Dean Kremer stays on track on his rehab.
Kutter Crawford, Brayan Bello – Crawford will be fine RoS, but has given up 15 ER over his last 16 IP and has a hellish Week 12 two-start: vs PHI (107 wRC+ vs RHP, 7th best in MLB) and vs NYY (MLB-best 130 wRC+ vs RHP). He also goes to CIN Week 13. No thank you for Bello on a single start vs NYY.
Franke Montas – He looked great in his last start (7 scoreless IP at COL) but at MIL (116 wRC+ vs RHP) is pressing your luck.
Casey Mize – He hasn’t made it past the fifth inning in his last three starts and goes to HOU in Week 12 (112 wRC+ vs RHP, 4th best in MLB) then to ATL in Week 13. His SwStr rate is still under 9% on the year and there are better arms to speculate on.
Seth Lugo, Brady Singer, Alec Marsh – Both Lugo and Singer have a gruesome LAD/NYY two start in Week 12. As unreal as Lugo has been, I wouldn’t consider this a must-start. Think of it this way – If Lugo draws this two-start 10 times, how many of them end well? 4/10? 3/10? I would consider someone else on a deep staff in a 12-team league. Singer has a 4.86 SIERA over his last two starts and I would prefer a middle reliever like Matt Strahm for the week to preserve ratios. The chances Singer gets two wins are slim and the odds his ratios will be trash seem high. Both LAD and NYY also don’t strikeout much vs RHP. Marsh for one start vs NYY is a no-go.
Colin Rea – It’s a decent Week 12 two-start on paper (vs TOR, vs CIN), but running out 10+ IP from an SP with a 4.74 SIERA and 16-8% K-BB has a nuclear-level ratio bombing written all over it.
Jordan Hicks, Kyle Harrison – Hicks is solid (3.88 SIERA, 21-8% K-BB) but not elite. I don’t fully trust him in a one-start week vs HOU (112 wRC+ vs RHP, 4th best in MLB). I wouldn’t jump at the opportunity to run Harrison out there for IP volume. He gets HOU then LAA, who’s been sneaky good vs LHP (121 wRC+, 3rd best in MLB). Harrison has also had some rough starts lately, yielding 11 ER over his last 16 IP.
Dane Dunning, Michael Lorenzen – No thank you with both getting one start at LAD.
