Bryan Fitzgerald
Below is a rundown of hitters owners need to be prepared to bench or consider cutting for the either the M-Th or F-Su scoring period for the upcoming week. Players that are listed are at least 50% owned in the NFBC’s Main Event or Online Championship.
Players are listed alphabetically by team, with rationale written below the chart. Suggestions for the strength of play for each scoring period are ranked as follows: Great Start, Solid Start, Possible Start, Likely Bench, Definite Bench.
| Hitters to Sit or Drop | ||||||
| Name | Team | Pos | ME% | OC% | Wk 15 M-Th | Wk 15 F-Su |
| Jake McCarthy | ARZ | OF | 100 | 74 | Possible Start | Possible Start |
| Eugenio Suarez | ARZ | 3B | 63 | 38 | Drop | |
| Orlando Arcia | ATL | SS | 84 | 52 | Likely Bench | Likely Bench |
| Adam Duvall | ATL | OF | 75 | 20 | Drop | |
| Masataka Yoshida | BOS | OF | 95 | 80 | Possible Start | Possible Start |
| Enmanuel Valdez | BOS | 2B | 65 | 10 | Drop | |
| Michael Busch | CHC | 1B,3B | 100 | 85 | Likely Bench | Possible Start |
| Jeimer Candelario | CIN | 1B,3B | 100 | 100 | Hurt? | Hurt? |
| Jake Fraley | CIN | OF | 100 | 88 | Hurt? | Hurt? |
| Will Benson | CIN | OF | 74 | 51 | Likely Bench | Likely Bench |
| Tyler Freeman | CLE | OF,3B | 84 | 43 | Likely Bench | Likely Bench |
| Brandon Drury | LAA | 1B,2B | 95 | 21 | Possible Start | Possible Start |
| Kevin Pillar | LAA | OF | 68 | 26 | Drop | |
| Otto Lopez | MIA | 2B | 67 | 4 | Drop | |
| Tyler Black | MLW | 3B | 100 | 38 | Possible Start | Likely Bench |
| Trevor Larnach | MIN | OF | 93 | 16 | Likely Bench | Possible Start |
| DJ LeMahieu | NYY | 1B,3B | 54 | 7 | Drop | |
| Connor Joe | PIT | 1B,OF | 86 | 61 | Drop | |
| Dylan Moore | SEA | 3B,SS,2B,OF | 100 | 82 | Likely Bench | Likely Bench |
| Josh Rojas | SEA | 2B,3B | 77 | 33 | Likely Bench | Likely Bench |
| Mitch Haniger | SEA | OF | 70 | 31 | Drop | |
| Brandon Lowe | TB | 2B | 98 | 88 | Hurt? | Hurt? |
| Davis Schneider | TOR | OF,2B | 100 | 94 | Likely Bench | Likely Bench |
| Jesse Winker | WAS | OF | 100 | 99 | Definite Bench | Solid Start |
| Eddie Rosario | WAS | OF | 67 | 12 | Definite Bench | Possible Start |
Jake McCarthy, Eugenio Suarez – McCarthy’s started seven straight games, but with Alek Thomas set to come off the IL soon, I’d wager McCarthy is the ARI outfielder who loses the most playing time. After a hot stretch, McCarthy has cooled off recently – 3-22 (.143 BA) over his last six games. He’s also a weak defender. Suarez is just toast (70 wRC+ on the season, 71 over the past three weeks). His team has vocally said they want to play him less and he might have been benched or DFA’d by now if Jordan Lawlar hadn’t gotten hurt.
Orlando Arcia, Adam Duvall – Arica is unplayable at the moment unless you’re desperate for MI volume (27 wRC+ in June). When you’re losing time to Forrest Wall vs RHP as Duvall is, you don’t need to be on fantasy rosters. He’s hitting .122 in June with 1 HR.
Masataka Yoshida, Enmanuel Valdez – Yoshida is playing against most RHP, but hasn’t done much all season (.240 BA, 80 wRC+, 2 HR). If he’s not hitting for power or stealing bases, and barely hitting above league-average, he’s far from a must-start. Valdez is losing starts vs RHP, as David Hamilton is shifting to 2B vs some righties, with Rafaela playing more SS as all of BOS’s outfielders and Yoshida are currently healthy.
Michael Busch – He’s a pretty fringe start for M-Th next week, as he sits vs some LHP and gets just 2/3 vs RHP, with one of those righties being Zack Wheeler.
Jeimer Candelario, Jake Fraley, Will Benson – Potential injury watches for both Jeimer and Fraley, as they each sat both Wednesday and Thursday. Benson has been one of the worst hitters in MLB since May 1 (.176/.281/.328) and even sat vs a RHP on Wednesday. He may be worth holding onto because of CIN’s juicy seven-game Week 16 (seven games at home vs COL).
Tyler Freeman – CLE is currently set to see 13 RHP in 14 days beginning Monday, and Freeman has sat for 3/9 vs RHP since June 14. Freeman’s also been cold recently – 77 wRC+, .584 OPS over the last weeks.
Brandon Drury, Kevin Pillar – Considering how Drury’s season has gone so far, with five different stretches of missing multiple games for illness or injuries, I don’t know how anyone could fully trust him for volume next week. As of Friday, he was still out with a respiratory infection. Pillar has started just two games since June 17 and needs to be cut.
Otto Lopez – The shine has worn off after a hot start (25 wRC+, .194 BA in June) and there’s no reason to hold onto a heavily BA-dependent asset who isn’t hitting and plays on one of the league’s worst offenses.
Tyler Black – This recommended sit sucks. Owners were teased into thinking he was getting regular starts last weekend only to see him benched all of this week in favor of Jake Bauers. That Bauers hit a grand slam Wednesday will probably buy him more playing time, which is unfortunate, as MLW has four games at COL (3/4 vs RHP) M-Th. Even if Black draws starts and plays well over the weekend, he’s no guarantee for playing time next week.
Trevor Larnach – He hits in the top third of the order everyday vs RHP, but gets just two RHP next M-Th. His high OBP, some power, no speed profile doesn’t contribute much to roto lines. Since May 1 – .210 BA, 5 HR, 16 RBI, 11 R, 1 SB.
DJ LeMahieu – I have no idea what 54% of Main Event owners are clinging to. He’s cooked – 41 wRC+, .178 SLG, .278 BA.
Connor Joe – It looks like he’s lost his job in RF to Edward Olivares for the time being, as he’s started just once since June 21. Joe has a 39 wRC+ over the past three weeks and can be cut, as he’s probably back to his short-side platoon duties.
Dylan Moore, Josh Rojas, Mitch Haniger – I understand holding onto Moore for the skills (BATX – 23 HR, 37 SB per 600 PA), but he’s started one game since Jorge Polanco came off the IL, has been a short-side platoon most of his career, and SEA is set to see 11/12 vs RHP over the next two weeks. His best bet for playing time may be stealing some from Rojas at 3B, as Rojas has been dreadful since a hot start to the season (74 wRC+). He’s better vs RHP (116 wRC+) but even with all the RHP coming up, I wouldn’t trust him for decent roto lines. He’s a desperation MI/CI stream only. Haniger’s started just once since last Saturday and doesn’t need to be rostered.
Brandon Lowe – Injury watch, as he hasn’t played since last Saturday as he nurses a toe injury, but is not on the IL.
Davis Schneider – Even with 3/4 games vs RHP M-Th next week, he’s hard to depend on for volume, as he’s sat against two of the last four vs RHP. I’d monitor his usage over the weekend.
Jesse Winker, Eddie Rosario – Both strong-side platoon bats are unplayable M-Th against NYM next week, with WAS drawing 3/4 vs LHP. They also face the Mets again M-Th in Week 16, currently lining up for 2/4 vs LHP in that period. Rosario (21 wRC+ in June) is probably cuttable in most situations.
| Pitchers to Sit or Drop | |||||
| Name | Team | ME% | OC% | Week 15 | Week 16 |
| Jordan Montgomery | ARZ | 100 | 100 | Definite Bench | Possible Start |
| Frankie Montas | CIN | 97 | 48 | Definite Bench | Possible Start |
| Triston McKenzie | CLE | 79 | 78 | Drop | |
| Cal Quantrill | COL | 68 | 13 | Drop | |
| Casey Mize | DET | 77 | 24 | Likely Bench | Possible Start |
| Trevor Rogers | MIA | 74 | 10 | Drop | |
| Colin Rea | MLW | 88 | 10 | Definite Bench | Solid Start |
| Bobby Miller | LAD | 100 | 100 | Possible Start | Possible Start |
| JP Sears | OAK | 63 | 24 | Drop | |
| Mitch Spence | OAK | 61 | 1 | Likely Bench | Likely Bench |
| Hogan Harris | OAK | 61 | 4 | Likely Bench | Likely Bench |
| Bailey Falter | PIT | 84 | 8 | Likely Bench | Likely Bench |
| Jon Gray | TEX | 97 | 99 | Likely Bench | Possible Start |
| Michael Lorenzen | TEX | 100 | 75 | Possible Start | Solid Start |
| Mitchell Parker | WAS | 100 | 91 | Likely Bench | Possible Start |
| DJ Herz | WAS | 97 | 62 | Definite Bench | Likely Bench |
Jordan Montgomery – I’d consider taking a zero from a pitcher on the IL this week rather than a chance on Montgomery (4.81 SIERA) on the road against LAD.
Frankie Montas – Starting him next week at NYY is like flying a nuclear warhead into your ratios.
Cal Quantrill – He’s still working a smoke-and-mirrors routine well (3.42 ERA vs 5.14 xFIP in June) but gets MIL (114 wRC+ vs RHP) at home this week and goes to CIN in Week 16. He’s cuttable for any higher upside, speculative pitching add.
Triston McKenzie – He’s been horrific this month – 5.80 xFIP, 22-15% K-BB, with a 46% ball rate over the last three weeks. I think his solid May was all due to a .205 BABIP that month. He’s a shell of what he was a few years ago and clearly is having issues pitching through his elbow injury.
Casey Mize – He’s been better lately (3.46 SIERA over the past three weeks) but I don’t trust him at CIN.
Trevor Rogers – With BOS on tap for Week 15, then an at HOU/at CIN two-start in Week 16, there’s no reason to hold onto him and his 4.62 SIERA.
Colin Rea – I’m not loving running out an SP with a 4.76 SIERA over the past three weeks at COL.
Bobby Miller – It’s going to be difficult to sit him unless you have a deep staff, but he’s looked like a shell of himself since coming off the IL and I’d try to avoid running him out there until there’s a sign he’s turned things around. His fastball averaged 97 mph in his latest blow up against a pathetic White Sox offense, down 2 mph from his first (and only useful) start of the season. I don’t think he’s suddenly going to go from not being able to last three innings versus the White Sox to throwing a gem versus a decent ARI offense.
JP Sears, Mitch Spence, Hogan Harris – Tough matchups for Harris and Spence, with Spence on a LAA/BAL two-start and Harris getting one start vs BAL (118 wRC+ vs RHP, 126 wRC+ vs LHP). Sears looks completely lost (4.99 SIERA) and shouldn’t be rostered.
Bailey Falter – He has a 4.46 SIERA over the past three weeks and draws a hot Mets team that is murdering LHP (122 wRC+ vs lefties, 4th best in MLB).
Jon Gray, Micheal Lorenzen – Gray got bombed for the second time in three starts Thursday night (8 ER at BAL). Though a blowup against the O’s is forgivable, that combined with his 9 ER outing two weeks ago vs the Mets would have me likely benching him vs SD this week (121 wRC+ vs RHP, 2nd best in MLB). Even without Tatis, their lefties are still hitting RHP very well.
While Lorenzen has had great results lately (2.51 ERA over his last five starts) there’s a lot of smoke and mirrors to it (.238 BABIP, 4.56 SIERA). He gets TB in Week 15 who is about league-average against RHP (97 wRC+) and I wouldn’t consider him an auto-start on deep staffs, as some regression for Lorenzen is coming.
Mitchell Parker, DJ Herz – Herz close to cuttable, as he’s struggled of late (8 ER over his last two starts) and has a tough Week 15 matchup vs a hot Mets offense that’s crushing LHP (122 wRC+ vs lefties, 4th best in MLB). Parker also gets one start vs NYM and has been rough under the surface recently (4.87 xFIP in June). I wouldn’t consider him an auto-start on a deep staff.
