Week 22 Sits and Drops

Below is a rundown of hitters owners need to consider cutting or benching for the either the M-Th or F-Su scoring period for Week 22 (Aug. 19-25). Players listed are at least 50% owned in the NFBC’s Main Event or Online Championship. Hitters on the IL or in AAA are not included.

Players are listed alphabetically by team, with rationale written below the chart. Suggestions for the strength of play for each scoring period are ranked as follows: Great Start, Solid Start, Possible Start, Likely Bench, Definite Bench. Injured players who are not on the IL are listed as “Injury Watch.”

Ketel Marte – Even though he was back in the lineup Saturday after missing most of the week with a reaggravated ankle sprain, I’d at least think about having a backup plan in case the ankle flares up again. He could be rested a couple games next week as well.

Jarred Kelenic, Whit Merrifield – Even with Soler out, Kelenic is still hitting low in the order (Michael Harris has been elevated to leadoff) and probably will sit vs LHP. ATL faces 2/3 vs LHP F-Su and Kelenic has just been unproductive over the past month – 92 PA, .181 BA, 3 HR, 1 SB. …The playing time is there for Merrifield (he’s started every game at 2B since July 31) but the production has not (3 SB, 10 R, 1 RBI, .234 BA in the last 30 days). The Braves are playing him out of desperation and he appears to no longer be a dependable contributor to roto teams.

Cedric Mullins, Ryan O’Hearn – It’s a brutal week for O’Hearn, who sits vs all LHP and will likely only draw two starts on a seven-game week, as BAL is set to face 5/7 vs LHP in Week 22. …Mullins seems to be back in good graces with BAL, starting 9/11 games since Aug. 8. Just one of those starts, however, came against a LHP, and I’d be cautious relying on him for more than around four total starts this week. That could still be useful, as he’s been more productive lately. Last 30 days – 159 wRC+, .270 BA, 4 HR, 5 SB.

Danny Jansen – He’s a backup catcher and doesn’t need to be rostered. He’s started just 7/19 games since being traded to BOS on July 28 and has seen only 28 PA in that span, good for 43rd among catchers. Here’s the company just above him for playing time since the trade:

Michael Busch, Issac Paredes – Busch usually sits vs LHP and can’t be trusted with 2/3 vs LHP M-Th. …Paredes has been dismal since being traded to CHC – 64 PA, 69 wRC+, .164/.266/.327, 2 HR. Much of that appears to be driven by a comically low .159 BABIP, but I wouldn’t auto-start Paredes until he figures it out if you have another bench option or can squeeze in a good streamer. There are a lot of teams with seven games this week.

Noelvi Marte – CIN has a seven-game week on the road and Marte isn’t a sure thing for either everyday at-bats or production. Over the past two weeks, he’s at least hitting the ball harder (90 mph average EV, 45% hard hit), but he’s still whiffing too much (16% SwStr). He could be sent to AAA by the time you read this. I cut him in a 12-teamer but am holding in a 15 where CI is thin. I still believe he has a chance to get it together in a great home park on a team that lets everyone run, but he’ll be waiting on my bench.

Lane Thomas – He’s going to be dropped by a lot of owners this Sunday, and rightfully so, as he’s done nothing since coming over from WSH and is now losing playing time vs RHP to Jhonkensy Noel and Will Brennan. Thomas’ stats since the trade: .104/.204/.146, 1 SB, 0 HR, 6 wRC+. His .185 BABIP since becoming a Guardian will correct itself, but I wouldn’t wait on that to regress in addition to his playing time and stolen bases rematerializing with just six weeks left in the season.

Charlie Blackmon – He starts vs some LHP, but can’t be trusted M-Th on the road against WAS with 3/3 vs LHP on tap.

Miguel Vargas – I don’t understand the high ownership rate for Vargas. He’s on the worst team in MLB and has a ton of work to do before he becomes useful for roto. He’s still hitting a ton of weak fly balls (84 mph average EV, 49% fly ball rate over the last 30 days) that crater his BA (.125 last 30 days) while contributing zero in counting stats (1 HR, 0 SB, 4 R, 2 RBI last 30 days). 

Justyn-Henry Malloy – He’s a lefty masher (241 wRC+ vs LHP, 58 vs RHP), DET may only see one LHP over the next two weeks, and I think he’s the most likely to lose playing time vs RHP when Riley Greene comes off the IL, which should be this week.

Jake Meyers – It may be tough to sit an everyday hitter who’s been productive all season and has a seven-game week on tap, but Meyers has been scuffling lately. Last 30 days – 45 wRC+, 2 HR, 2 SB, .189 BA. I wouldn’t be shocked if he sat for one of the M-Th games and had a fairly blah week for roto stats.

Maikel Garcia, Hunter Renfroe, Michael Massey, MJ Melendez – Playing time is a mess in KC at the moment. Garcia and Renfroe are team-dependent holds or cuts based on speed and power needs, with Garcia sliding into a quasi short-side platoon role lately and Renfore also losing some PA to RHP. KC faces 2/3 vs RHP M-Th and 1/3 vs RHP F-Su. …Massey and Melendez are both no-gos vs the lefty-heavy F-Su slate.

Andy Pages – There’s a good chance he gets booted back to AAA when Tommy Edman is activated off the IL. Pages should already be off fantasy rosters. He’s only playing half the time vs RHP and has been useless to roto owners over the past month – 78 PA, 1 HR, 0 SB, .209 BA.

Jose Miranda – Miranda is sitting against some RHP, making him hard to trust. I might cut him if I really need R and RBI. 

Rhys Hoskins, Sal Frelick, Brice Turang, Joey Ortiz – Rostering Brewers continue to be infuriating this season. Hoskins has been one of the team’s best hitters over the past month (91 PA, 6 HR, 11 R, 14 RBI, .256 BA), but has only started 3/5 vs RHP since Tyler Black was recalled. I’m probably still rolling Hoskins out in most situations, but owners need to realize he’s not an everyday bat right now. …Frelick is playing everyday (10 straight starts) but isn’t providing much roto help – .187 BA, 1 HR, 0 SB, 11 R, 3 RBI over the last 30 days. …Ortiz is in the same boat as Frelick – playing time is great, production not so much. Ortiz’s started every game since July 12, but in that span has just 1 HR, 1 SB, and a .206 BA (.271 BABIP) across 110 PA. …If you’re good on speed, you can think about moving on from Turang. Last 30 days – 7 SB, .176 BA, 1 HR, 29 wRC+, and he sits vs most LHP. 

Jesse Winker – He’s the most likely to lose playing time once Starling Marte comes off the IL, which should be soon. Winker hasn’t been providing much lately anyway. Last 30 days – 0 HR, .262 BA, 7 R, 4 RBI, 2 SB.

Ben Rice – An easy cut, as the playing time just isn’t there. He’s losing starts vs some RHP and sitting against all lefties.

Max Schuemann – He’s cooled off lately (.216 BA, 1 HR, 2 SB last 30 days) and could lose his starting gig this week if Jacob Wilson is activated off the IL.

Bryan De La Cruz, Rowdy Tellez, Ke’Bryan Hayes – PIT has a seven-game week, but De La Cruz and Hayes are just brutal for fantasy owners at the moment. BDLC has landed some hits over the past few days, but as a whole has looked lost since moving to PIT – 13 wRC+, 0 HR, 1 RBI over 51 PA with a 37-2% K-BB. He does hit LHP better (98 wRC+ vs LHP, 79 wRC+ vs RHP) and PIT will see 4/7 vs LHP next week, but on a weak offense and struggling, he’s hardly a must-start. …Hayes can be cut unless you’re desperate for volume and speed from a CI. There are no signs of him turning it around. Last 30 days – .209 BA, 1 HR, 3 SB. …Tellez, a strong-side platoon bat, can’t be started for 3/4 vs LHP M-Th.

Jorge Polanco, Justin Turner, Mitch Haniger, Luke Raley, Mitch Garver – Another team with a bit of a messy playing time situation. Polanco has sat for 2/3 vs LHP over the past few weeks and I wouldn’t trust him with two lefties on the slate F-Su. …Raley’s strong-side platoon bat is a no-go F-Su as well. …Turner and Haniger are only playing against some RHP over the past week and neither is playing well enough to merit a hold. …Why is Garver being held in more than half of OCs? He hasn’t started against a RHP since Aug. 3 and is ranked 727th on the Fangraphs player rater over the past 30 days.

Mark Canha, LaMonte Wade, Jerar Encarnacion – Canha is a short-side platoon bat (zero starts vs RHP since being traded to SF) who doesn’t need to be rostered. …Wade hits 2nd against RHP and gets 5/6 vs righties this week, but has been slumping lately (.194 BA, 1 HR, 1 RBI last 30 days). Owners can do better than his 2/3 vs RHP M-Th. …Encarnacion’s power skills are solid (112 max EV, 50% hard hit, 13% barrel rate) but he also has a 57% ground ball rate, is sitting against some RHP, and doesn’t need to be rostered at the moment.

Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Gorman, Tommy Pham, Victor Scott II – The Cardinals lineup is terribly crowded and one of the harder playing time minefields for fantasy owners to navigate right now. I’d try to avoid depending on any of these players for useful stats at this critical point in the season. STL should face 6/6 vs RHP next week, giving Nootbaar and Gorman the biggest playing time edge for the week, though Lars has been ice cold (last 30 days: 1 HR, 2 SB, .217 BA, 79 wRC+) and Gorman hasn’t been any better (2 HR, .191 BA, 67 wRC+). Both have also sat against one RHP in the past week, so I wouldn’t consider either a lock to play in 6/6 in Week 22. …Scott has started 10/12 games since being called up on Aug. 4, but has no steals (the Cardinals are 22nd in MLB in SB) and sports an ugly .182/.182/.333 line in that span. …Pham is the best bat of the bunch and looked a bit rejuvenated coming over the CWS – 131 wRC+, .253/.340/.489 in his first 53 PA back with STL. However, he’s started only 3/7 games vs RHP since Aug. 7 and isn’t a dependable roto option stuck in a quasi short-side platoon role.

Josh Jung, Jonah Heim – I wouldn’t be shocked if Jung is still feeling lingering effects from the wrist surgery that sidelined him for four months earlier this year. Since he came off the IL on July 30 – 60 PA, 47 wRC+, 1 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, .224/.233/.310. His 88 mph average exit velocity since he rejoined the lineup is 3 mph less than last season, his hard hit rate is down to 40% (47% in 2023), and his SwStr is up to 16% (14% in 2023). I’d look to bench him until he starts making louder contact again. …Heim is going to be a popular drop this week, as he’s slide into a backup role behind Carson Kelly, having started just 3/9 vs RHP over the past 10 days.

Joey Loperfido – TOR is giving him everyday starts vs RHP, but that may not last for long. His struggles have continued since coming over from HOU – 45 PA, .148/.176/.186, 0 HR, 0 SB, 42-2% K-BB