Bryan Fitzgerald
It’s shaping up to be a tough Week 9 FAAB landscape for hitting. Eight teams have seven-game weeks, but four of those teams are ATL, BAL, NYY, and SDP, whose hitters are more or less universally owned. As of Friday, there were no real breakout bats or huge call-ups on the way. This is a week to focus any big spending on whatever highly rostered hitter may have been dropped.
Sits and Drops
Below are players who are at least 50% owned in either the NFBC Main Event or Online Championship that I think need to be considered as sits or outright cuts for this coming week. Players already on the IL or sent to AAA as of Friday are not included.
Players are listed alphabetically by team and ranked on the following scale for each scoring period: Great Start, Solid Start, Possible Start, Possible Bench, Likely Bench, Definite Bench, and Drop. Write-ups and rationale on each follow below. Be sure to check the probable pitchers this weekend for decisions dependent on righty/lefty match-ups.
| Hitters to Sit or Drop | ||||||
| Name | Team | Pos | ME% | OC% | Wk 9 M-Th | Wk 9 F-Su |
| Austin Riley | ATL | 3B | 100 | 100 | Injured? | Injured? |
| Travis D’Arnaud | ATL | C | 100 | 100 | Injured? | Injured? |
| Jarred Kelenic | ATL | OF | 77 | 28 | Drop | |
| Cedric Mullins | BAL | OF | 100 | 97 | Likely Bench | Likely Bench |
| Andres Gimenez | CLE | 2B | 100 | 100 | Solid Start | Possible Bench |
| Kyle Manzardo | CLE | 1B | 97 | 72 | Possible Start | Definite Bench |
| Will Brennan | CLE | OF | 95 | 15 | Possible Start | Definite Bench |
| Andy Ibanez | DET | 2B,OF | 61 | 9 | Drop | |
| MJ Melendez | KC | OF | 90 | 66 | Definite Bench | Definite Bench |
| Dairon Blanco | KC | OF | 86 | 18 | Drop | |
| Jesus Sanchez | MIA | OF | 75 | 5 | Likely Bench | Possible Start |
| Brice Turang | MLW | 2B,SS | 100 | 100 | Likely Bench | Great Start |
| Max Kepler | MIN | OF | 100 | 99 | Definite Bench | Solid Start |
| Trevor Larnach | MIN | OF | 100 | 41 | Definite Bench | Solid Start |
| Alex Kirilloff | MIN | 1B,OF | 86 | 47 | Drop | |
| Harrison Bader | NYM | OF | 83 | 25 | Possible Bench | Possible Bench |
| Brett Baty | NYM | 3B | 95 | 69 | Drop | |
| Oswaldo Cabrera | NYY | 3B,OF | 63 | 66 | Possible Start | Likely Bench |
| Tyler Nevin | OAK | 1B,OF,3B | 58 | 30 | Drop | |
| Jack Suwinski | PIT | OF | 95 | 57 | Definite Bench | Decent Start |
| Jorge Polanco | SEA | 2B | 100 | 93 | Injured? | Injured? |
| Nolan Gorman | STL | 2B | 100 | 94 | Likely Bench | Decent Start |
| Lars Nootbaar | STL | OF | 100 | 98 | Possible Bench | Decent Start |
| Jonny DeLuca | TB | OF | 100 | 73 | Possible Start | Possible Start |
| Amed Rosario | TB | OF,2B,SS | 91 | 86 | Likely Bench | Likely Bench |
| Richie Palacios | TB | OF | 83 | 27 | Drop | |
| Ben Rortvedt | TB | C | 68 | 7 | Drop | |
| Jose Siri | TB | OF | 60 | 32 | Drop | |
| Evan Carter | TEX | OF | 100 | 99 | Possible Bench | Solid Start |
| Josh Smith | TEX | 3B,SS,OF | 93 | 39 | Likely Bench | Likely Bench |
| Ezequiel Duran | TEX | 3B,SS,OF | 98 | 88 | Likely Bench | Likely Bench |
| Jesse Winker | WAS | OF | 91 | 71 | Possible Bench | Possible Bench |
| Nick Senzel | WAS | 3B,OF | 65 | 41 | Drop | |
Austin Riley, Travis D’Arnaud – Just potential injury coverage here in case either is not playing or on the IL on Sunday.
Jarred Kelenic – ATL gets 14 games in 14 days starting Monday, but Kelenic is providing nothing – 2 HR, 0 SB, .192 BA since the calendar flipped to May and his BABIP luck dried up. ATL is set to see 6/14 vs LHP in Weeks 9 and 10, meaning Kelenic will sit quite a bit in the upcoming weeks. He’s cuttable everywhere.
Cedric Mullins – Tough times for Mullins (-46 wRC+ in May). He’s only started 3/6 vs RHP since last Saturday and has hit higher than 7th in the order once since May 1. Even with BAL on a seven-game Week 9 facing 6/7 vs RHP, he’s unplayable right now.
Andres Gimenez, Kyle Manzardo, Will Brennan – There’s a whole lotta LHP lined up for CLE over the next two weeks. As it stands now, the Guardians are set to see 7/12 vs LHP in Weeks 9 and 10. I’d have coverage for all of these guys, even Gimenez. Brennan might be droppable on some rosters.
Brennan and Manzardo never see lefties and Gimenez has sat vs three of the last four LHP. I still think the Guardians will work Gimenez in vs some lefties, but he’s not great against them (87 wRC+) and I wouldn’t hesitate to sub in a better stream for some of the upcoming scoring periods. CLE will see 2/3 vs RHP next M-Th, but after that they’re set to face 2/3 vs LHP F-Su and in both Week 10 scoring periods.
Andy Ibanez – A short-side platoon bat picked up this past week for his 2/3 vs LHP M-Th, he’s tough to roster even on a seven-game week with just two lefties on tap for DET in Week 9.
MJ Melendez, Dairon Blanco – How bad has Melendez been lately? His last 62 PA: -19 wRC+, 0 HR, 0 SB, .115 BA, 31-2% K-BB. He’s not currently playable in any format.
The Darion Blanco Experiment is over for now – he’s started one game this week after four starts late in Week 7 prompted lots of speculative adds. I’d love to see him get regular playing time, but it’s just not happening.
Jesus Sanchez – He’s a tough play M-Th: three games, one versus a LHP, another vs Freddy Peralta.
Brice Turang – MLW is lined up for 3/3 vs LHP M-Th next week. Turang has only started two of the last five games vs LHP, so there’s a chance he only gets one game in the early Week 9 scoring period.
Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach, Alek Kirilloff – Kepler and Larnach are unplayable M-Th, with 2/3 games vs LHP. Kiriloff is a drop for me. He has wRC+ of 8 over the past three weeks, has done nothing since his hot start, never plays vs LHP, and hasn’t hit higher than 6th in the order since May 6.
Brett Baty, Harrison Bader – Despite NYM getting 6/6 vs RHP in Week 9, Baty is unplayable. He looks lost at the plate. He’s cut his SwStr% and upped his contact rate, but is chasing more (38% in 2024, 27% in 2023), leading to terrible quality of contact (5% barrel rate, 85 mph average EV – 7th percentile in MLB). Mark Vientos could steal some PA from him as well, making Baty a drop unless he goes nuclear this weekend.
I’d be cautious counting on Bader for a solid Week 9. He’s started six of the last eight games, but four of those were vs LHP, as Tyrone Taylor drew the last two starts vs righties.
Oswaldo Cabrera – He’s losing PA vs RHP to Jon Berti, so his four-game M-Th vs SEA (all RHP) is not a must-start. Playing him at San Diego F-Su feels risky. I think he can be dropped for better options, but might be worth a hold for a week for bench insurance if you have the roster room. He’s a definite sit or drop in Week 10 with NYY lined up for three LHP in six games, all on the road.
Tyler Nevin – I think some owners were holding out hope he’d be useful in OAK’s seven-game Week 8, but he’s started just six of the last 10 games and is an easy drop
Jack Suwinski – I think he’ll turn his season around eventually, but not this coming M-Th with 2/3 vs LHP on tap as long as Blake Snell stays on his current rehab schedule. It’s also worth noting PIT only has two games M-Th in Week 10, with one coming against Tarik Skubal, making Suwinski likely only a weekend start for the next few weeks.
Jorge Polanco – Injury watch here as Polanco has sat three straight.
Nolan Gorman, Lars Nootbaar – STL is on tap to draw 3/6 vs LHP next week, including 2/3 M-Th. I’d look for coverage if possible. Gorman has started just once against the last four LHP. Nootbar has only sat vs one LHP all season, but it came this past Tuesday and he’s been awful against lefties this year (68 wRC+, .114 ISO). I wouldn’t be shocked if Noot loses a game or two to Dylan Carlson next week.
Jonny DeLuca, Amed Rosario, Richie Palacios, Ben Rortvedt, Jose Siri – I’m not going to waste time trying to dissect what the hell the Rays are doing. Just have backups in place or save yourself some sanity and drop everyone but DeLuca, whose talent is worth holding onto. Palacios and Siri have drawn a lot of starts lately, but could just as soon go back to part-time roles. You can probably find a better streamer than Rortvedt (.431 BABIP, 0 HR), whose losing some time vs RHP to Alex Jackson. Rosario might be one of TB’s best hitters, but has started one game since Jonathan Aranda came off the IL. I could see holding onto Rosario for some bench insurance, but that wouldn’t stop me from adding a more consistent bat.
Evan Carter, Josh Smith, Ezequiel Duran – For Carter, I’m just not 100% convinced he’s fully healthy fresh off a cortisone injection and would have a backup plan in place in case he misses more games. He also only gets 2 RHP M-Th in Week 9 and one of them is Zack Wheeler.
Smith has chipped in BA (.271) but nowhere else (2 HR, 1 SB) and is sitting vs most LHP. TEX gets five RHP next week and three of them are Wheeler, Bailey Ober, and Pablo Lopez. TEX also only has five games in Week 10.
Duran still hasn’t connected on a barrel this season, but has been hot over his last 10 games (.379 BA, 149 wRC+). He’s a tough start for the next few weeks, but playing well, with multi-eligibility, and starting 11 of the last 12 games, he’s worth a hold for bench insurance in case you’re hit with an injury.
Jesse Winker, Nick Senzel – Winker’s battling back spasms, hitting .161/.297/.323 with 1 HR over his last 10 games, and was dropped to 7th in the order this week. A strong-side platoon bat, he gets six RHPs in Week 9, but five of those SPs are Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Bryan Woo. I wouldn’t blame anyone for cutting Winker.
Senzel has lost the some playing time since Robles came off the IL (four starts in the last seven games) and is shaping up like the short-side platoon bat his career numbers suggest he should be (career 114 wRC+ vs LHP, 70 vs RHP). With six RHPs currently on deck for WAS in Week 9, he can be dropped.
FAAB Targets
Here are hitters I’d be targeting this weekend who are less than 75% owned in the NFBC Main Event, along with how I’d rate their potential usage for the upcoming scoring periods in Weeks 9 and 10. Players are listed in order of preference with write-ups below. Long story short for this week – the pickings are slim.
| Name | Team | Pos | ME % | OC % | Wk 9 M-Th | Week 9 F-Su | Week 10 M-Th | Week 10 F-Su |
| Joey Ortiz | MLW | 3B,2B | 75 | 12 | Solid Start | Great Start | Great Start | Solid Start |
| Luis Matos | SFG | OF | 39 | 3 | Possible Start | Solid Start | Solid Start | Solid Start |
| Miguel Vargas | LAD | 2B | 0 | 0 | Possible Start | Possible Start | Possible Start | Possible Start |
| Jason Heyward | LAD | OF | 0 | 0 | Solid Start | Solid Start | Possible Bench | Solid Start |
| Luke Raley Jr. | SEA | 1B,OF | 33 | 6 | Possible Start | Definite Bench | Possible Start | Possible Start |
| Edmundo Sosa | PHI | 3B, SS | 32 | 1 | Possible Start | Great Start | Solid Start | Possible Start |
| Mike Ford | CIN | UT | 26 | 0 | Solid Start | Solid Start | Great Start | Possible Start |
| Paul DeJong | CWS | SS | 74 | 8 | Solid Start | Possible Start | Possible Start | Possible Start |
| Dominic Canzone | SEA | OF | 12 | 0 | Possible Start | Definite Bench | Possible Start | Possible Start |
| Mark Vientos | NYM | UT | 0 | 0 | Likely Bench | Likely Bench | Likely Bench | Likely Bench |
| Kevin Pillar | LAA | OF | 11 | 1 | Possible Start | Possible Start | Possible Start | Likely Bench |
| Kevin Kiermaier | TOR | OF | 2 | 0 | Possible Start | Possible Start | Solid Start | Definite Bench |
| Nelson Velazquez | KCR | OF | 56 | 34 | Possible Start | Possible Start | Solid Start | Possible Start |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | CHC | OF | 58 | 16 | Possible Start | Possible Start | Solid Start | Definite Bench |
| Adam Duvall | ATL | OF | 0 | 1 | Definite Bench | Solid Start | Solid Start | Definite Bench |
| Jonathan Aranda | TBR | 2B | 0 | 0 | Possible Start | Possible Start | Possible Start | Possible Start |
| Gio Urshela | DET | 1B,3B | 0 | 0 | Possible Start | Possible Start | Possible Start | Possible Start |
| Michael A. Taylor | PIT | OF | 9 | 0 | Solid Start | Possible Bench | Definite Bench | Possible Bench |
Joey Ortiz – With Oliver Dunn cast off to AAA, Ortiz (hopefully) has the everyday handle on the 3B job. Since May 1, he’s been stinging the ball (112 max EV, 13% barrel rate) with great control of the strike zone (10% SwStr, 18-9% K-BB, 94% zone contact). Projections have him for around a .255 BA with about 12 HR and 10 SB per 600 PA. There’s upside for him to beat those HR projections if he starts lifting the ball more, and if he keeps his OBP up (currently .384) there’s a good chance he beats the SB projections as well with MLW running all the time. His schedule lines up nicely as well – six games vs MIA and at BOS in Week 9, then seven games in Week 10 vs CHC and CWS.
Luis Matos – With Jung-Hoo Lee out, Matos is the only Giant who can play center field and looks locked into everyday PA. He only hit .218 in AAA this year, but that came with an identical .218 BABIP. As a 21-year-old in 253 PA in MLB last year, he hit .250 with 2 HR and 3 SB with 92% zone contact. Most projections have him for around a .260 BA with close to 12 HR and 12 SB per 600 PA. That’s pretty solid for someone his age.
He already has excellent bat-to-ball skills with a bit of pop and speed. That he hits low in the order in a weak lineup in a tough hitters park are points against him, but the skills are good and BA with non-zero power and speed is tough to find in the FAAB pool. His upcoming schedule is OK – six games in both Weeks 9 and 10 vs PIT (will face Skenes and Jones), NYM, PHI, and NYY.
Miguel Vargas – His value comes down to how much he’ll be playing and whether he can maintain the hard hit gains he’s shown in AAA this season (90 mph average EV, 38% hard hit). Heyward drew the start over Vargas in left field Friday, but I’d roll the dice on Vargas’ talent to see how the playing time shakes out over the next few weeks. With Outman in AAA, Muncy on the IL, and Pages cooling off a bit, there’s opportunities there in baseball’s best lineup.
Vargas’ excellent line in AAA this season (.295/.436/.583, 8 HR, 8 SB, 17-18% K-BB) is backed up by solid RoS MLB projections (BATX: .253/.323/.413). His issue in the majors last year was making too much weak contact (87 mph average EV, 31% hard hit) while hitting lots of fly balls (47% fly ball rate). That caused a ton of pop-ups and easy outs, leading to a .224 BABIP and 15% infield fly ball rate (27th highest among 293 batters, min. 300 PA).
He could shift quickly into a solid contributor If he’s driving the ball more, turning some of those cans of corn into extra base hits. Couple the plate skills and potential power gains with a high OBP and solid base-running, and Vargas is worth a look.
The only other concern for fantasy owners is his roster flexibility. He currently only holds 2B eligibility, and if he’s not playing frequently it could take him until June to be OF eligible.
Jason Heyward – Dave Roberts has shown a lot of loyalty to Heyward and LAD gets 5/6 vs RHP next weekend, including two righties in CIN F-Su. He smashed RHP last season (123 wRC+, 195 ISO) and needs to be owned as a strong-side platoon bat in the LAD lineup. The main concern is if Vargas steals some playing time.
Luke Raley Jr, Dominic Canzone – Raley has been white-hot (227 wRC+ since May 1) and has the playing time edge for now, but I think both him and Canzone are decent adds. Both can crush RHP – career .208 ISO vs LHP for Raley, .212 for Canzone. SEA gets just four RHP in Week 9, but six in Week 10. It may take an injury for Canzone to get consistent playing time, but he’s good enough to speculate on at the end of bid lists.
Edmundo Sosa – I was a bit surprised he wasn’t added more last week ahead of a seven-game slate. He’s started all but one game since Turner went on the IL, is playing well (.313/.421/.521, 12% barrel rate), now is CI/MI eligible, and projects as a solid all-around contributor when on the field (BATX RoS: .244 BA and close to 15 HR and 12 SB per 600 PA). PHI has a six-game Week 9 with a prime F-Su slate at COL. The only issue is Trea Turner looks like he’ll be coming back much earlier than expected, so I’d watch the news for updates there before bidding on Sosa. All the start/sit recommendations above for Sosa are presuming Turner is out all of Week 9 and 10.
Mike Ford – Mike Ford Streaming Season officially begins this week with CIN getting six games in Week 9, all at home, all vs RHP. Even with UT-only eligibility, I’d find a way to work him into most rosters. He’s hitting 3rd vs RHP and last season slammed righties for a .265 ISO and all 16 of his HR over 200 PA.
Paul DeJong – His hot streak could end at any point (Since May 1: 149 wRC+, 3 HR) but he needs to be considered as a MI stream playing everyday and with seven games in Week 9.
Mark Vientos – He’s currently a decent speculative add whose winning bid price could spike if he has a hot weekend and appears set for some decent playing time. His max EV was 115 in MLB last season, his average EV in AAA this year was 92 mph, and he’s always flashed a good ability to draw walks throughout the minors while hitting for power. He’s still likely to swing-and-miss a ton (14% SwStr in AAA both this season and in 2023), but power bats have been few and far between on the waiver wire this year. I’d follow his usage closely over the weekend and bid accordingly.
Kevin Pillar – I guess you have to pay attention to Pillar as long as he’s hitting this well (180 wRC+, 4 HR, 4 SB) and batting cleanup everyday. There’s a sketchy .375 BABIP behind this success that is sure to revert back soon, and a weak 84 mph average EV, 105 max EV, and 29% hard hit rate are all suspect as well. Still, his Week 9 schedule is decent (at HOU, home vs CLE) and he’s worth a flier if you need a stream.
Kevin Kiermaier – Not my favorite OF stream of the week, but not a bad one, he (should) be healthy and starting just about every day. Typically decent vs RHP (career 102 wRC+), he’s currently lined up for 6/7 vs RHP next week, then three more righties to start Week 10. Six of those RHP matchups over Weeks 9 and 10 are vs CHW, who can’t hold runners this year (3rd most SB allowed in MLB).
Nelson Velazquez – He’s still whiffing too much (33% K on the year), but he’s started six of the last seven games, is hitting better lately (103 wRC+ last 10 games) and is capable of going on wild HR surges if you need a speculative power bat. His Week 9 isn’t great, but also isn’t terrible (six games vs DET, at TBR) and KCR has a seven-game Week 10.
Pete Crow-Armstrong – Many owners cut bait with PCA last week, but the Cubs are sticking with him, starting him in three of the last four games, including one vs LHP. Although the results haven’t been there, he’s done a nice job keeping his SwStr% at a respectable 12% (20% K rate) and his .255/.316/.392 overall line is usable coupled with his top-end speed. CHC will draw four RHP in Week 9 before 3/4 M-Th in Week 10.
Adam Duvall – If you have the roster room, Duvall makes for a sneaky F-Su stream in Week 9 (2/3 vs LHP) and M-Th stream to open Week 10 (2/4 vs LHP). He’s started every game vs LHP this year and is pummeling lefties for a 151 wRC+ and .184 ISO.
Jonathan Aranda – He’s the Rays new cleanup hitter, I guess? He’s batted 4th in three straight and has flashed good plate skills and some power in the minors. But before you get too excited about his minor league line last season (20-14% K-BB, 25 HR, .339/.449/.613) remember that was a 25-year-old playing in AAA. If he can cut down on his 30% K rate in MLB from last year while hitting for some power, he becomes intriguing, but that’s far from certain, as is getting regular PA in Tampa.
Gio Urshela – The career .277 hitter is worth keeping tabs on this weekend to see if he’s getting any PA vs RHP, as DET has a seven-game week in Week 9 (5/7 vs RHP). He was getting regular run vs righties before his injury.
Michael A. Taylor – He’s playing vs RHP more and still starts vs every LHP, where most of his production comes from (career 98 wRC+, .177 ISO vs LHP; 74 wRC+, .135 ISO vs RHP). He should see 2/3 vs LHP M-Th in Week 9 vs SFG, who’ve allowed the second most SB in MLB.
