NFBC Percentiles After Week 12 (With Some SGP!)

Here’s a quick look at where we stand in the NFBC landscape after Week 12 in the three major contests (Main Event, Online Championship, and Draft Champions). The 80th percentile for each contest over the past three weeks is listed below, averaged out to a full-season pace to better capture the overall movement. 2023’s ME after Week 12 is included as well for comparison.

For a full of the all current percentiles for each contest plus on-pace totals and weekly averages see the Google Sheet here: NFBC Percentiles, After Week 12. This is the best source to use to see what percentiles your own teams are currently at.

Looking below, offense is painstaking crawl upward, with some of the biggest moves being HR in the OC. Some of the most noticeable movement in pitching is for ERA in the DC, which has moved from 3.32 up to 3.39 for the 80th percentile over the past three weeks. This makes sense as injuries mount, offense ticks up a tad, and owners have only their drafted bench to turn to for fill-ins. Over the past three weeks, Ks have also dropped by almost 10 for the 80th in the ME. I’d attribute to a lack of starting pitching depth as well.

2024 Main Event On-Pace, 80th Percentile
	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	BA	IP	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP
Week 10	7511	1023	270	994	186	0.254	1394	1402	95	76	3.33	1.14
Week 11	7524	1026	272	995	189	0.254	1390	1397	96	76	3.35	1.14
Week 12	7524	1026	272	999	189	0.254	1395	1391	97	75	3.38	1.15
2023 Main Event On-Pace, 80th Percentile
	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	BA	IP	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP
Week 10	7528	1075	292	1040	189	0.26	1383	1423	95	73	3.69	1.20
Week 11	7535	1070	292	1038	189	0.260	1393	1426	96	74	3.71	1.21
Week 12	7561	1076	293	1046	189	0.260	1389	1424	95	72	3.74	1.21
2024 Online Championship On-Pace, 80th Percentile
	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	BA	IP	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP
Week 10	7760	1077	289	1048	194	0.255	1407	1439	97	84	3.24	1.12
Week 11	7778	1082	290	1046	196	0.255	1406	1438	98	83	3.26	1.12
Week 12	7778	1082	293	1049	198	0.255	1409	1436	101	83	3.29	1.12
2024 Draft Champions On-Pace, 80th Percentile
	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	BA	IP	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP
Week 10	7463	1013	267	986	181	0.254	1382	1380	95	76	3.32	1.14
Week 11	7479	1016	270	989	184	0.253	1377	1377	93	76	3.37	1.14
Week 12	7486	1017	270	990	185	0.254	1384	1375	95	77	3.39	1.15

Below is a chart of where we’re currently at with SGP for the Main Event, with 2023 for comparison. If you’re unfamiliar with SGP or the concept of relative SGP, see Tanner Bell’s fantastic, in-depth explainer here: https://www.smartfantasybaseball.com/2016/01/how-to-analyze-sgp-denominators-from-different-sources/

Short version on relative SGP – It uses a common denominator (RBI for offense, K for pitching) to view SGP from different sources and league sizes on the same scale. Looking at what the SGP numbers are so far in the ME serves as another example of how much offense has fallen off this season. I also find it’s a good practice to update my SGP if using Tanner’s SGP sheet or any sort of projection system with SGP inputs. We’re deep enough into the season to know that this year’s run environment will not match 2023’s. Note that all numbers are based on SGP for the Overall Standings.

	2024 Main Event SGP (Overall Standings, Week 12)
	R	HR	RBI	SB	BA	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP
Raw	0.122	0.0551	0.141	0.0588	0.0000339	0.208	0.0230	0.0373	-0.00145	-0.000251
Relative	0.860	0.389	1.00	0.416	0.000240	1.00	0.110	0.179	-0.00697	-0.00121
	2023 Main Event SGP (Overall Standings, Week 12)
	R	HR	RBI	SB	BA	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP
Raw	0.137	0.0590	0.140	0.0693	0.0000369	0.228	0.0256	0.0407	-0.00168	-0.000277
Relative	0.975	0.422	1.00	0.490	0.000261	1.00	0.123	0.196	-0.00806	-0.00133

Hit me up with any questions or suggestions on X: https://twitter.com/CoachFitzSD