Bryan Fitzgerald
With three weeks left to go, all of us are at least in one league where we’ll be trying to grind out every win, strikeout, or edge in ratios we can. To help with making FAAB or start/sit decisions, posted below is a link to a chart with stats I use to help me make tough calls.
Click the big link below to see the chart.
SP CHART WEEK 25
This chart includes stats for only the past 30 days. For starting pitchers – inning pitched per start, ERA, WHIP, ERA-SIERA (to help visualize who is over/under-performing their peripherals) K%, BB%, K%-BB%, BABIP, LOB%, HR/FB%, and the W/L percentage of their team. For each pitcher’s opponent, for against RHP and LHP – wRC+, K%, ISO. Each opponents W/L percentage over the past 30 days is included as well.
Some quick takeaways after looking at this week’s match-ups.
Starts/Adds
Cade Povich, BAL – You probably don’t need me to tell you target Povich this week, as he’ll be on everyone’s FAAB strings where available (67% owned Main Event, 12% Online Championship) after slicing through the White Sox this past week (7.1 IP, 10 K, 0 BB, 5 H, 0 ER). This is more of a match-up note (at BOS, at DET two-start), as I wouldn’t be hesitant to roll him out, even in a 12-teamer. The at Fenway start may look a little risky, but the Red Sox have been terrible vs LHP over the past month (49 wRC+, 29% K, 0.86 ISO) and have won less than 40% of their games over the past 30 days.
Zebby Matthews, MIN – It’s been a nightmarish last two starts for Zebby (7 IP, 13 ER), but I have no reservations running him out versus LAA this week. Matthews has a 7.36 ERA against a 3.55 SIERA, underscored by a painful .366 BABIP and 56% LOB. Some of his woes are due to allowing a lot of a lot of hard contact (13% barrel rate against), and he currently has no answer for lefties (4.86 xFIP vs LHH, 3.50 vs RHH). He gets a home start this week against LAA to help get back on track. Last 30 days vs RHP for LAA – 74 wRC+, 26% K, .154 ISO, and a .333 W/L percentage as a whole. This has a “get right” start for Matthews written all over it. He’s owned everywhere in 15-teamers (98% in the ME) and I’d add him to bid strings on win-needy 12-teamers as well (59% owned in the OC).
Jakob Junis, CIN – I wouldn’t want to be in a position where I’d have to start Junis, but he’s one of the few widely available options in 15-teamers (11% owned in the ME) with both decent results and an OK matchup. Junis has only issued one walk since July 31 and has been very solid over the past month – 3.40 SIERA, 20-0 K%-BB%. There’s some luck driving his recent success (.174 BABIP, 81% LOB), but he’s proven to be a reliable arm (3.66 SIERA over 288 IP since 2021). It’s also encouraging he made it to 5 IP in his last start vs NYM. This week, he gets away from Great American Ballpark and goes to STL, who will be throwing Sonny Gray against him, but have been unspectacular vs righties over the past 30 days – 106 wRC+, .144 ISO, with a .462 winning percentage as a team.
Fades
Hayden Birdsong, SF – Even if I’m desperate for wins, I’m looking for other options than Birdsong’s two-start. MIL and SD are two of the hotter teams in MLB, each with win percentages north of .600 over the past 30 days. Both are also crushing RHP recently (.196 ISO vs RHP for MIL, .174 for SD). Add in Birdsong’s 18% BB rate and 5.16 SIERA over the past month, and he looks like he’s a rookie SP who’s wearing down and at high risk of one of these games being a bad blowup.
Valente Bellozo, MIA – Just 35% owned in the ME, some owners may look to grab any two-start they can, but I wouldn’t touch Bellozo this week. The matchups are decent (at PIT, at WAS), but Bellozo is the ultimate smoke-and-mirrors act. Last 30 days – 3.58 ERA vs 6.37 SIERA, 13-10 K%-BB%, .252 BABIP, 89% LOB.
