Rob D
As fantasy baseball players we all have different ways we like to attack our draft season. Analysts have plenty of avenues available to extract nuggets of data to determine how we feel in our evaluations of players. One of my favorite practices to employ prior to drafting is finding players who have shown similar skill sets and compiled comparable stats, in an attempt to see if there is any disparities in their ADP’s that i can take advantage of. Let’s examine the table below. We are examining some numbers from several metrics that help us gauge a player’s skill set. These numbers are from two separate players during the 2019 season.
Upon quick glance the players look eerily close – not identical but pretty darn close. The player listed in the bottom set of numbers has shown a better ability to make contact with the baseball, and when the contact occurs he is barreling up the ball at a better percentage. That same player is also striking out a lot less, with a swinging strike rate to back it up. He walks slightly more as well, and he is hitting the ball harder on line drives and fly balls. Again, we are looking at very similar skill sets with the data presented. We also know that baseball players can exhibit similar skill sets and produce widely different results at times. Lets take a look at another table below from the same two players, this time with some counting stats.
The players produced similar stats in home runs and stolen bases. Two areas of counting stats that are driven solely by the player’s ability. The player on top tallied 19 more total runs + RBI. In rotisserie leagues runs and RBI totals get overlooked and are under-appreciated in terms of being two categories that play a pivotal role in our place in the standings. Being driven in by your teammates and having teammates on base to drive in involve elements besides that of the player’s skills. Accumulating these counting stats also is direct result of where the player bats in the lineup, and the amount of chances they are involved in to produce such plays, which is why i tend to lean on skill sets vs projections in my evaluations of players. Now let’s reveal the two players in these tables.
The player on the bottom who displayed batter batt skills but weaker counting stats is Mike Moustakas. The player on top is Gleyber Torres. Let’s examine some of the recent ADP date from the NFBC drafts. As of this writing, from July 1- July 21 there has been 16 Main Event drafts, 59 Online Championships (OC) and 6 auction drafts.
In the main event drafts, Moustakas is going 100 picks later on average. 100 picks for a player displaying a better hit tool. Torres and Moustakas provide multi-eligibility, with both players playing second base, while Torres can slot in at short-stop and Moustakas at third base. Let’s take a closer look at one area where Torres took advantage of being in a better lineup than Moustakas. Both players accumulated the majority of their at-bats in the heart of the order. The table below shows Torres’ stats batting from the 4th spot and 7th spot in the Yankees lineup.
When he batted 7th he took full advantage of driving in the heart of the Yankees lineup as well as getting on base to put himself in the position to get driven in by one of the better lower half of lineups in the league. Small sample size from that 7th spot, but enough production with opportunity to help his numbers out tremendously. Is is realistic to say that if he hits .300 instead of .391 that his numbers are a little closer to Moustakas’ line? Is it possible that the player who is exhibiting the better bat tool will produce better numbers in this coming year? Yes, and yes. A lot of time is spent on finding the difference in players ,when in reality the majority of them are very similar. One more table. ATC projections for the 60 game season:
I sense a pattern here. Two players, so close in skill sets and in stats, yet so very far in ADP. Torres still has that uber prospect pedigree fresh in everyone’s mind, as well as the illustrious glow that is called a New York Yankee. You will catch me targeting Mike Moustakas in as many leagues I can this year. His new hitter friendly ballpark makes it even more sense to do so. I can get a better skill set, with similar stats, 100 picks later. In addition, Torres provides very little in terms of a stolen base source. At his current acquisition cost I prefer to target some players who can help me in multiple categories on the road to ultimate roster construction. Players such as Ozzie Albies, Starling Marte and Javy Baez. This is a practice in ADP diving that should become an annual pre draft habit. Do not let your brain get fooled by the markets perception of the player’s possible worth for the upcoming year. The marketplace serves as a guide to help you gauge where a player might land in the draft and the cost of acquiring that player. However it is out to ruin your nights sleep and trick your brain into believing what everyone else is doing is the best route for your team builds. ADP bias- you stay from me.
